Vitória 0-3 Fluminense: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

How Fluminense won it

Fluminense struck first through Jefferson Savarino in the 15th minute, set up by Agustín Canobbio. Agustín Canobbio made it 0-2 to Fluminense in the 42nd minute, set up by Nonato. Rodrigo Castillo made it 0-3 to Fluminense in the 90th minute, set up by Nonato.

It was 0-2 at half-time.

The referee, R. Pereira de Lima, showed 2 yellow cards: 2 to Vitória and 0 to Fluminense.

Vitória: J. Ribeiro Ventura, 4-1-4-1 · Fluminense: M. De Oliveira, 4-2-3-1.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

The prediction was right. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Over 2.25, and on 0-3 it was right.

The estimate's most likely result was a Fluminense win at 37%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-1 (14%).

On goals the estimate was close: about 2.5 expected, 3 scored.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 46%; with 3 goals the over came in, against the way the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 52%; they did not both score, against the estimate.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-11-06, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 2.23 for Vitória and 0.85 for Fluminense.

Vitória scored about 2.2 fewer than their chances were worth: poor finishing, or a goalkeeper at his best.

Fluminense made more of their chances than the xG suggests, by about 2.1 goals.

Vitória created the better chances, 2.23 xG to 0.85, and still lost. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.

The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Fluminense to create more, and Vitória did.

Vitória had 5 shots on target, Fluminense 7.

Fluminense's goalkeeper made 5 saves.

Fluminense had 55% of the ball and turned it into the win.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Vitória came into it with 34 Brasileirão matches played, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.5 a match, with 1.01 expected goals for and 1.60 against, and had won 29% of their matches.

Fluminense came into it with 34 Brasileirão matches played, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.2 a match, with 1.39 expected goals for and 1.40 against, and had won 47% of their matches.

Vitória vs Fluminense: the match in numbers

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Nonato (Fluminense), rated 8.5 by Sportmonks, with 2 assists.

Vitória

• Jamerson 7.4
• Renê 7.1
• Erick 7.0
• Baralhas 6.8
• Emmanuel Martínez 6.8

Fluminense

• Nonato 8.5 2 assists
• Agustín Canobbio 8.3 1 goal, 1 assist
• Fábio 7.8
• Jefferson Savarino 7.6 1 goal
• Hulk 7.6

The lowest-rated starter was Cacá at 6.1. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

• Vitória: Vitória vs Bragantino Thursday 19 November 2026 · Brasileirão
• Fluminense: São Paulo vs Fluminense Friday 20 November 2026 · Brasileirão

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Vitória vs Fluminense

What was the score in Vitória vs Fluminense?

Vitória 0-3 Fluminense (half-time 0-2), Brasileirão, Friday 6 November 2026.

Who scored in Vitória vs Fluminense?

Jefferson Savarino 15', Agustín Canobbio 42', Rodrigo Castillo 90'.

Did Moneyball predict Vitória vs Fluminense correctly?

The prediction was right. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Over 2.25, and on 0-3 it was right.

Who was man of the match in Vitória vs Fluminense?

Nonato, rated 8.5 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Vitória vs Fluminense?

R. Pereira de Lima.