Troyes vs Le Havre Prediction and Stats | Ligue 1 Gameweek 11
Ligue 1 · Friday 20 November 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Complexe Sportif de l'Aube N° 2 - Terrain du Bas, Troyes · updated 2026-11-13
Troyes welcome Le Havre to Complexe Sportif de l'Aube N° 2 - Terrain du Bas in Troyes in Ligue 1 Gameweek 11 action on Friday 20 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Troyes have played 10 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 20% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 50% win rate. Le Havre have played 10 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 0.9 and conceding 2.2 goals a game and winning 0% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Troyes 40%, the draw 27%, Le Havre 33%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Troyes 1.46, Le Havre 1.29.
- Over 2.5 goals: 52% · both teams to score: 56%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 10 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Troyes: form and key numbers
In style Troyes are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.23 a match created, 1.46 conceded (goals minus xG: -5.3).
- Shots: 13.1 a match, 3.3 on target.
- Possession: 37.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 30% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 30% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.75.
Le Havre: form and key numbers
In style Le Havre press high, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.71 a match created, 1.56 conceded (goals minus xG: -8.1).
- Shots: 16.6 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 47.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 10% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Troyes vs Le Havre: season averages side by side
| Troyes | Per match this season | Le Havre |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Matches | 10 |
| 0.7 | Goals scored | 0.9 |
| 1.7 | Goals conceded | 2.2 |
| 1.23 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.71 |
| 1.46 | xG conceded | 1.56 |
| 13.1 | Shots | 16.6 |
| 3.3 | On target | 5.0 |
| 37.7 | Possession % | 47.7 |
| 30% | Clean sheets % | 10% |
| 30% | Both teams scored % | 60% |
| 5.7 | Corners | 5.3 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.75 | Average rating | 6.78 |
Players to watch
Troyes
- Anis Ouzenadji LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 65 · Dribbler, Reads the game (top 14% of his position)
- Hugo Picard LMF · Wide playmaker · Moneyball Score 58 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 2% of his position)
Le Havre
- Josh Maja CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 65 · Takes high-quality shots, Gets into scoring positions (top 2% of his position)
- Junior Mwanga DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 63 · Hard to dribble past, Disciplined (top 3% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Djibril Ouziad
Djibril Ouziad, 17 · Le Havre · RWB · Complete wing-back · Moneyball Score 72
Djibril Ouziad, 17, plays as a wing-back for Le Havre in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and duels won. Weakest in dribbled past. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wing-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RWB · Wing-back Natural, 72
- RM · Wide midfielder Natural, 72
- RB · Full-back Natural, 70
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 2.15 / 90 | 96% |
| Duels won | 6.85 / 90 | 87% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.61 / 90 | 83% |
| Key passes | 2.15 / 90 | 79% |
| Expected goals | 0.13 / 90 | 71% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★★½ Two-way wide midfielder Wide midfielder
- ★★★★ Complete wing-back Wing-back
Scout's notes: Crosser, Duel winner, Dribbler.
- What Djibril Ouziad is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Djibril Ouziad's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Troyes vs Le Havre prediction
Le Havre should have more of the ball, with Troyes likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.46 for Troyes and 1.29 for Le Havre - with over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams scoring at 56%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Troyes 1-1 Le Havre
Troyes vs Le Havre: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 40%
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.75 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (52%)
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 56% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 5.4 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 11.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Ligue 1 previews
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- Paris vs Angers SCO Sunday 22 November 2026
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Troyes vs Le Havre: questions and answers
When is Troyes vs Le Havre?
Troyes vs Le Havre is on Friday 20 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC, in Ligue 1 Gameweek 11.
Where is Troyes vs Le Havre played?
At Complexe Sportif de l'Aube N° 2 - Terrain du Bas, Troyes, Troyes's home ground.
Who will win Troyes vs Le Havre?
It is close: Troyes 40%, draw 27%, Le Havre 33%. Our prediction is Troyes 1-1 Le Havre.
Who is the player to watch in Troyes vs Le Havre?
Djibril Ouziad of Le Havre: a complete wing-back with a Moneyball Score of 72 against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Troyes vs Le Havre?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.