Strasbourg vs Brest Prediction and Stats | Ligue 1 Gameweek 11
Ligue 1 · Saturday 21 November 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Stade de la Meinau, Strasbourg · updated 2026-11-13
Strasbourg welcome Brest to Stade de la Meinau in Strasbourg in Ligue 1 Gameweek 11 action on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Strasbourg have played 10 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 2.2 goals a game and winning 30% of them. At home they average 2.3 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 67% win rate. Brest have played 10 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 40% of them. Away from home they average 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Brest are narrow favourites at 47%, with the draw at 23% and Strasbourg at 30%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Strasbourg 1.52, Brest 1.94.
- Over 2.5 goals: 67% · both teams to score: 67%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 10 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Strasbourg: form and key numbers
In style Strasbourg take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.40 a match created, 1.76 conceded (goals minus xG: +4.0).
- Shots: 12.6 a match, 4.9 on target.
- Possession: 48.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 80% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.74.
Brest: form and key numbers
In style Brest are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.83 a match created, 1.27 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.3).
- Shots: 16.1 a match, 5.7 on target.
- Possession: 45.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 70% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Strasbourg vs Brest: season averages side by side
| Strasbourg | Per match this season | Brest |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Matches | 10 |
| 1.8 | Goals scored | 1.8 |
| 2.2 | Goals conceded | 1.2 |
| 1.40 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.83 |
| 1.76 | xG conceded | 1.27 |
| 12.6 | Shots | 16.1 |
| 4.9 | On target | 5.7 |
| 48.3 | Possession % | 45.0 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 20% |
| 80% | Both teams scored % | 70% |
| 2.5 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 1.7 | Yellow cards | 1.4 |
| 6.74 | Average rating | 6.87 |
Players to watch
Strasbourg
- Jeyland Mitchell CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 57 · Reads the game, Ball-winner (top 18% of his position)
- Gessime Yassine RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 56 · Draws fouls, Dribbler (top 4% of his position)
Brest
- Raphaël Le Guen CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 60 · Hard to dribble past, Dominant in the air (top 7% of his position)
- Bradley Locko LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 60 · Duel winner, Dribbler (top 20% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Pape Demba Diop
Pape Demba Diop, 23 · Strasbourg · CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 66
Pape Demba Diop, 23, plays as a central midfielder for Strasbourg in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in dispossessed and tackles. Weakest in expected goals. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average central midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CM · Central midfielder Natural, 66
- DM · Defensive midfielder Accomplished, 63
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Dispossessed | 0.15 / 90 | 98% |
| Tackles | 3.64 / 90 | 94% |
| Pass accuracy | 92% | 87% |
| Passes | 68.03 / 90 | 83% |
| Long balls | 2.88 / 90 | 80% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Deep-lying playmaker Defensive midfielder
- ★★★½ Ball-winning midfielder Central midfielder
- ★★★ Playmaker Central midfielder
Scout's notes: Press-resistant, Ball-winner, Secure passer.
- What Pape Demba Diop is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Pape Demba Diop's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Strasbourg vs Brest prediction
Strasbourg should have more of the ball; Strasbourg like to take players on; Brest are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals - 1.52 for Strasbourg and 1.94 for Brest - with over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams scoring at 67%. Brest have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Strasbourg 1-2 Brest
Strasbourg vs Brest: what the numbers say
- 1. Brest unbeaten (win or draw) 70% between them
- 2. 3 or more goals 67% by the model, 3.46 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 67% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 4.1 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 corners or fewer 6.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Strasbourg vs Brest: questions and answers
When is Strasbourg vs Brest?
Strasbourg vs Brest is on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC, in Ligue 1 Gameweek 11.
Where is Strasbourg vs Brest played?
At Stade de la Meinau, Strasbourg, Strasbourg's home ground.
Who will win Strasbourg vs Brest?
Brest are the favourites: Strasbourg 30%, draw 23%, Brest 47%. Our prediction is Strasbourg 1-2 Brest.
Who is the player to watch in Strasbourg vs Brest?
Pape Demba Diop of Strasbourg: a ball-winning midfielder with a Moneyball Score of 66 against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Strasbourg vs Brest?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 67%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.