Olympique Marseille vs Le Mans Prediction and Stats | Ligue 1 Gameweek 11
Ligue 1 · Sunday 22 November 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Stade Vélodrome, Marseille · updated 2026-11-13
Olympique Marseille welcome Le Mans to Stade Vélodrome in Marseille in Ligue 1 Gameweek 11 action on Sunday 22 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Olympique Marseille have played 10 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 60% of them. At home they average 2.6 goals scored and 1.6 conceded over 5 matches, with a 50% win rate. Le Mans have played 10 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 10% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 5 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Olympique Marseille are narrow favourites at 59%, with the draw at 20% and Le Mans at 21%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Olympique Marseille 2.33, Le Mans 1.36.
- Over 2.5 goals: 71% · both teams to score: 68%.
- Most likely score: 3–1 (7%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 10 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Olympique Marseille: form and key numbers
In style Olympique Marseille keep the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.66 a match created, 1.97 conceded (goals minus xG: +5.4).
- Shots: 13.2 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 55.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 30% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.94.
Le Mans: form and key numbers
In style Le Mans are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.43 a match created, 1.79 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.3).
- Shots: 10.7 a match, 3.6 on target.
- Possession: 46.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 80% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.70.
Olympique Marseille vs Le Mans: season averages side by side
| Olympique Marseille | Per match this season | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Matches | 10 |
| 2.2 | Goals scored | 1.2 |
| 1.4 | Goals conceded | 1.9 |
| 1.66 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.43 |
| 1.97 | xG conceded | 1.79 |
| 13.2 | Shots | 10.7 |
| 4.7 | On target | 3.6 |
| 55.9 | Possession % | 46.2 |
| 30% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 80% |
| 4.5 | Corners | 3.0 |
| 1.5 | Yellow cards | 2.3 |
| 6.94 | Average rating | 6.70 |
Players to watch
Olympique Marseille
- Nayef Aguerd CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 66 · Ball circulator, Dominant in the air (top 7% of his position)
- CJ Egan-Riley CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 65 · Disciplined, Hard to dribble past (top 6% of his position)
Le Mans
- Lucas Bretelle DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 62 · Reads the game, Press-resistant (top 6% of his position)
- Rayan Bamba RB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 56 · Dribbler, Crosser (top 16% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Lucas Calodat
Lucas Calodat, 24 · Le Mans · LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 72
Lucas Calodat, 24, plays as a wing-back for Le Mans in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in successful dribbles and expected assists (est.). Weakest in expected goals. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wing-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LWB · Wing-back Natural, 72
- LM · Wide midfielder Natural, 71
- LB · Full-back Accomplished, 67
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Successful dribbles | 1.84 / 90 | 92% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.33 / 90 | 87% |
| Dribbled past | 0.28 / 90 | 84% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.55 / 90 | 81% |
| Interceptions | 1.41 / 90 | 77% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★★ Two-way wide midfielder Wide midfielder
- ★★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Dribbler, Creator, Hard to dribble past.
- What Lucas Calodat is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Lucas Calodat's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Olympique Marseille vs Le Mans prediction
Olympique Marseille should have more of the ball, with Le Mans likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Le Mans go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals - 2.33 for Olympique Marseille and 1.36 for Le Mans - with over 2.5 goals at 71% and both teams scoring at 68%. Olympique Marseille have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Olympique Marseille 3-1 Le Mans
Olympique Marseille vs Le Mans: what the numbers say
- 1. Olympique Marseille win, the likeliest result 59% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 4 or more goals 50% by the model, 3.69 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 68% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 5.8 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 corners or fewer 7.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Olympique Marseille vs Le Mans: questions and answers
When is Olympique Marseille vs Le Mans?
Olympique Marseille vs Le Mans is on Sunday 22 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC, in Ligue 1 Gameweek 11.
Where is Olympique Marseille vs Le Mans played?
At Stade Vélodrome, Marseille, Olympique Marseille's home ground.
Who will win Olympique Marseille vs Le Mans?
Olympique Marseille are the favourites: Olympique Marseille 59%, draw 20%, Le Mans 21%. Our prediction is Olympique Marseille 3-1 Le Mans.
Who is the player to watch in Olympique Marseille vs Le Mans?
Lucas Calodat of Le Mans: a attacking wing-back with a Moneyball Score of 72 against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Olympique Marseille vs Le Mans?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 71%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.