Sporting Braga vs KuPS Prediction and Stats | Europa Conference League Gameweek 4
Europa Conference League · Thursday 26 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Estádio Municipal de Braga, Braga · updated 2026-11-13
Sporting Braga welcome KuPS to Estádio Municipal de Braga in Braga in Europa Conference League Gameweek 4 action on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Sporting Braga have played 3 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 33% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 80% win rate. KuPS have played 3 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 0.7 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 0% of them. Away from home they average 0.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Sporting Braga are narrow favourites at 46%, with the draw at 28% and KuPS at 26%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Sporting Braga 1.45, KuPS 1.03.
- Over 2.5 goals: 45% · both teams to score: 50%.
- Most likely score: 2–0 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (3 and 3 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Sporting Braga: form and key numbers
In style Sporting Braga keep the ball, press high, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 0.97 a match created (goals minus xG: +1.3).
- Shots: 11.8 a match, 4.2 on target.
- Possession: 53.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 89% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 0% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.74.
KuPS: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.80 a match created (goals minus xG: 0.0).
- Shots: 7.6 a match, 3.6 on target.
- Possession: 54.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.59.
Sporting Braga vs KuPS: season averages side by side
| Sporting Braga | Per match this season | KuPS |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Matches | 3 |
| 0.7 | Goals scored | 0.7 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 2.0 |
| 0.97 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.80 |
| 11.8 | Shots | 7.6 |
| 4.2 | On target | 3.6 |
| 53.4 | Possession % | 54.0 |
| 89% | Clean sheets % | 40% |
| 0% | Both teams scored % | 40% |
| 5.0 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 1.4 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.74 | Average rating | 6.59 |
Players to watch
Sporting Braga
- Adrian Barisic CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 50 · Blocks shots, Dominant in the air (top 19% of his position)
- João Moutinho CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 46 · Press-resistant, Secure passer (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Vítor Carvalho
Vítor Carvalho, 29 · Sporting Braga · CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 50
Vítor Carvalho, 29, plays as a centre-back for Sporting Braga in Liga Portugal. Strongest for his role in aerial duels won and long balls. Weakest in tackles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 50
- DM · Defensive midfielder Natural, 50
- CM · Central midfielder Accomplished, 44
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Aerial duels won | 4.99 / 90 | 94% |
| Long balls | 4.61 / 90 | 85% |
| Dribbled past | 0.13 / 90 | 79% |
| Duels won | 6.15 / 90 | 66% |
| Interceptions | 1.79 / 90 | 63% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Inverted full-back Full-back
- ★★★½ Deep-lying playmaker Defensive midfielder
- ★★★½ Anchor Defensive midfielder
Scout's notes: Dominant in the air, Long passer.
- What Vítor Carvalho is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Vítor Carvalho's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Sporting Braga vs KuPS prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals - 1.45 for Sporting Braga and 1.03 for KuPS - with over 2.5 goals at 45% and both teams scoring at 50%. Sporting Braga have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Sporting Braga 2-0 KuPS
Sporting Braga vs KuPS: what the numbers say
- 1. Sporting Braga unbeaten (win or draw) 74% between them
- 2. 2 goals or fewer 55% by the model, 2.48 goals expected
- 3. 4 cards or fewer the two sides average 3.0 cards a match between them
- 4. 9 or more corners 9.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Sporting Braga vs KuPS: questions and answers
When is Sporting Braga vs KuPS?
Sporting Braga vs KuPS is on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Europa Conference League Gameweek 4.
Where is Sporting Braga vs KuPS played?
At Estádio Municipal de Braga, Braga, Sporting Braga's home ground.
Who will win Sporting Braga vs KuPS?
Sporting Braga are the favourites: Sporting Braga 46%, draw 28%, KuPS 26%. Our prediction is Sporting Braga 2-0 KuPS.
Who is the player to watch in Sporting Braga vs KuPS?
Vítor Carvalho of Sporting Braga: a ball-playing centre-back with a Moneyball Score of 50 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Sporting Braga vs KuPS?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 45%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.