Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Lincoln Red Imps Prediction and Stats | Europa Conference League Gameweek 4
Europa Conference League · Thursday 26 November 2026 · 17:45 UTC · Arena Egnatia · updated 2026-11-13
Egnatia Rrogozhinë welcome Lincoln Red Imps to Arena Egnatia in Europa Conference League Gameweek 4 action on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë have played 3 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 0% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 0% win rate. Lincoln Red Imps have played 3 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 33% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Egnatia Rrogozhinë are narrow favourites at 43%, with the draw at 28% and Lincoln Red Imps at 28%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1.40, Lincoln Red Imps 1.08.
- Over 2.5 goals: 45% · both teams to score: 50%.
- Most likely score: 2–0 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (3 and 3 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.58 a match created (goals minus xG: +0.3).
- Shots: 11.3 a match, 5.3 on target.
- Possession: 54.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.80.
Lincoln Red Imps: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.41 a match created (goals minus xG: +4.0).
- Shots: 7.2 a match, 3.2 on target.
- Possession: 44.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.53.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Lincoln Red Imps: season averages side by side
| Egnatia Rrogozhinë | Per match this season | Lincoln Red Imps |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Matches | 3 |
| 0.7 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 1.3 | Goals conceded | 2.0 |
| 0.58 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.41 |
| 11.3 | Shots | 7.2 |
| 5.3 | On target | 3.2 |
| 54.7 | Possession % | 44.4 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 40% |
| 67% | Both teams scored % | 40% |
| 4.0 | Corners | 2.8 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.80 | Average rating | 6.53 |
Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Lincoln Red Imps prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals - 1.40 for Egnatia Rrogozhinë and 1.08 for Lincoln Red Imps - with over 2.5 goals at 45% and both teams scoring at 50%. Egnatia Rrogozhinë have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2-0 Lincoln Red Imps
Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Lincoln Red Imps: what the numbers say
- 1. Egnatia Rrogozhinë unbeaten (win or draw) 72% between them
- 2. 2 goals or fewer 55% by the model, 2.47 goals expected
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 6.8 cards a match between them
- 4. 10 corners or fewer 6.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Europa Conference League previews
- Kairat vs Mjällby Thursday 26 November 2026
- FC Iberia 1999 vs Getafe Thursday 26 November 2026
- Brighton & Hove Albion vs Universitatea Craiova Thursday 26 November 2026
- Ajax vs Thun Thursday 26 November 2026
- Brann vs AGF Thursday 26 November 2026
- Pafos FC vs FC Midtjylland Thursday 26 November 2026
- Hearts vs Monaco Thursday 26 November 2026
- Kauno Žalgiris vs Riga Thursday 26 November 2026
Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Lincoln Red Imps: questions and answers
When is Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Lincoln Red Imps?
Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Lincoln Red Imps is on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC, in Europa Conference League Gameweek 4.
Where is Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Lincoln Red Imps played?
At Arena Egnatia, Egnatia Rrogozhinë's home ground.
Who will win Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Lincoln Red Imps?
Egnatia Rrogozhinë are the favourites: Egnatia Rrogozhinë 43%, draw 28%, Lincoln Red Imps 28%. Our prediction is Egnatia Rrogozhinë 2-0 Lincoln Red Imps.
How many goals will there be in Egnatia Rrogozhinë vs Lincoln Red Imps?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 45%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.