Brann vs AGF Prediction and Stats | Europa Conference League Gameweek 4

Europa Conference League · Thursday 26 November 2026 · 17:45 UTC · Brann Stadion, Bergen · updated 2026-11-13

Brann welcome AGF to Brann Stadion in Bergen in Europa Conference League Gameweek 4 action on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC.

Brann have played 3 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 2.3 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 67% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 60% win rate. AGF have played 3 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 0.3 and conceding 0.7 goals a game and winning 0% of them. Away from home they average 0.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 0% win rate.

On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Brann are narrow favourites at 45%, with the draw at 29% and AGF at 27%.

Moneyball's estimate

Brann45%home win

Draw29%draw

AGF27%away win

Expected goals: Brann 1.39, AGF 1.02.
Over 2.5 goals: 43% · both teams to score: 49%.
Most likely score: 2–0 (9%).

From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (3 and 3 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.

Brann: form and key numbers

Expected goals: 0.89 a match created (goals minus xG: +12.0).
Shots: 11.0 a match, 4.8 on target.
Possession: 60.9% on average.
Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
Both teams scored in 89% of their matches.
Corners: 6.9 a match.
Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.60.

AGF: form and key numbers

Expected goals: 0.99 a match created (goals minus xG: -2.0).
Shots: 9.0 a match, 2.7 on target.
Possession: 45.7% on average.
Clean sheets: 33% of matches (0% away).
Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
Corners: 3.0 a match.
Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.77.

Brann vs AGF: season averages side by side

Brann	Per match this season	AGF
3	Matches	3
2.3	Goals scored	0.3
1.0	Goals conceded	0.7
0.89	Expected goals (xG)	0.99
11.0	Shots	9.0
4.8	On target	2.7
60.9	Possession %	45.7
0%	Clean sheets %	33%
89%	Both teams scored %	33%
6.9	Corners	3.0
1.9	Yellow cards	1.7
6.60	Average rating	6.77

Brann vs AGF prediction

Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals - 1.39 for Brann and 1.02 for AGF - with over 2.5 goals at 43% and both teams scoring at 49%. Brann have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.

Prediction: Brann 2-0 AGF

Brann vs AGF: what the numbers say

1. Brann unbeaten (win or draw) 73% between them
2. 2 goals or fewer 57% by the model, 2.41 goals expected
3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 6.6 cards a match between them
4. 9 or more corners 9.9 corners a match between them

Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.

The full analysis

Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.

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Brann vs AGF: questions and answers

When is Brann vs AGF?

Brann vs AGF is on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC, in Europa Conference League Gameweek 4.

Where is Brann vs AGF played?

At Brann Stadion, Bergen, Brann's home ground.

Who will win Brann vs AGF?

Brann are the favourites: Brann 45%, draw 29%, AGF 27%. Our prediction is Brann 2-0 AGF.

How many goals will there be in Brann vs AGF?

Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 43%.