Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction and Stats | Eredivisie Gameweek 13
Eredivisie · Sunday 22 November 2026 · 13:30 UTC · Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Rotterdam · updated 2026-11-13
Sparta Rotterdam welcome AZ Alkmaar to Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel in Rotterdam in Eredivisie Gameweek 13 action on Sunday 22 November 2026, kick-off 13:30 UTC.
Sparta Rotterdam have played 12 matches in Eredivisie this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 2.4 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 1.5 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 6 matches, with a 33% win rate. AZ Alkmaar have played 12 matches in Eredivisie this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 58% of them. Away from home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 6 matches, with a 43% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, AZ Alkmaar are narrow favourites at 53%, with the draw at 22% and Sparta Rotterdam at 26%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Sparta Rotterdam 1.46, AZ Alkmaar 2.13.
- Over 2.5 goals: 69% · both teams to score: 68%.
- Most likely score: 1–3 (6%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (12 and 12 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Sparta Rotterdam: form and key numbers
In style Sparta Rotterdam are happy without the ball, play long and direct, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.71 a match created, 2.05 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.5).
- Shots: 13.9 a match, 5.1 on target.
- Possession: 44.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 83% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.74.
AZ Alkmaar: form and key numbers
In style AZ Alkmaar keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.32 a match created, 1.22 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.9).
- Shots: 17.3 a match, 6.2 on target.
- Possession: 58.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.91.
Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar: season averages side by side
| Sparta Rotterdam | Per match this season | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Matches | 12 |
| 1.8 | Goals scored | 2.0 |
| 2.4 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 1.71 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.32 |
| 2.05 | xG conceded | 1.22 |
| 13.9 | Shots | 17.3 |
| 5.1 | On target | 6.2 |
| 44.7 | Possession % | 58.0 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 25% |
| 83% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 6.0 | Corners | 7.5 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 1.4 |
| 6.74 | Average rating | 6.91 |
Players to watch
Sparta Rotterdam
- Milan Zonneveld CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 47 · Dominant in the air, Chance creator (top 4% of his position)
- Casper Terho RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 36 · Crosser, Big-chance creator (top 27% of his position)
AZ Alkmaar
- Mexx Meerdink CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 60 · Takes high-quality shots, Gets into scoring positions (top 1% of his position)
- Ayoub Oufkir RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 60 · Chance creator, Dribbler (top 27% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Weslley Patati
Weslley Patati, 23 · AZ Alkmaar · RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 64
Weslley Patati, 23, plays as a winger for AZ Alkmaar in the Eredivisie. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and shots. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 64
- LW · Winger Competent, 38
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 1.88 / 90 | 85% |
| Shots | 3.76 / 90 | 81% |
| Expected goals | 0.35 / 90 | 79% |
| Big chances created | 0.51 / 90 | 75% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.54 / 90 | 70% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★½ Classic winger Winger
- ★★★½ Creative winger Winger
Scout's notes: Crosser, High shot volume.
- What Weslley Patati is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Weslley Patati's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar prediction
AZ Alkmaar should have more of the ball, with Sparta Rotterdam likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Sparta Rotterdam go long and direct; AZ Alkmaar work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals - 1.46 for Sparta Rotterdam and 2.13 for AZ Alkmaar - with over 2.5 goals at 69% and both teams scoring at 68%. AZ Alkmaar have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Sparta Rotterdam 1-3 AZ Alkmaar
Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar: what the numbers say
- 1. AZ Alkmaar unbeaten (win or draw) 74% between them
- 2. 3 or more goals 69% by the model, 3.58 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 68% by the model
- 4. 4 cards or fewer the two sides average 3.0 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 13.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar: questions and answers
When is Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar is on Sunday 22 November 2026, kick-off 13:30 UTC, in Eredivisie Gameweek 13.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar played?
At Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Rotterdam, Sparta Rotterdam's home ground.
Who will win Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar are the favourites: Sparta Rotterdam 26%, draw 22%, AZ Alkmaar 53%. Our prediction is Sparta Rotterdam 1-3 AZ Alkmaar.
Who is the player to watch in Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Weslley Patati of AZ Alkmaar: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 64 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Sparta Rotterdam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 69%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.