SC Freiburg vs FC Twente Prediction and Stats | Europa Conference League Gameweek 4
Europa Conference League · Thursday 26 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau · updated 2026-11-13
SC Freiburg welcome FC Twente to Europa-Park Stadion in Freiburg im Breisgau in Europa Conference League Gameweek 4 action on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
SC Freiburg have played 3 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 67% of them. At home they average 3.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 50% win rate. FC Twente have played 3 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 2.7 and conceding 0.7 goals a game and winning 100% of them. Away from home they average 4.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 40% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, SC Freiburg are narrow favourites at 55%, with the draw at 25% and FC Twente at 20%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: SC Freiburg 1.74, FC Twente 0.97.
- Over 2.5 goals: 51% · both teams to score: 52%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (9 and 3 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
SC Freiburg: form and key numbers
In style SC Freiburg press high, are strong in the air, take players on.
- Expected goals: 2.33 a match created (goals minus xG: -0.7).
- Shots: 20.2 a match, 7.2 on target.
- Possession: 55.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.94.
FC Twente: form and key numbers
In style FC Twente keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.86 a match created (goals minus xG: +1.0).
- Shots: 24.6 a match, 8.9 on target.
- Possession: 66.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 29% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 57% of their matches.
- Corners: 8.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.12.
SC Freiburg vs FC Twente: season averages side by side
| SC Freiburg | Per match this season | FC Twente |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Matches | 3 |
| 1.3 | Goals scored | 2.7 |
| 1.7 | Goals conceded | 0.7 |
| 2.33 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.86 |
| 20.2 | Shots | 24.6 |
| 7.2 | On target | 8.9 |
| 55.8 | Possession % | 66.4 |
| 20% | Clean sheets % | 29% |
| 60% | Both teams scored % | 57% |
| 7.0 | Corners | 8.1 |
| 1.2 | Yellow cards | 1.9 |
| 6.94 | Average rating | 7.12 |
Players to watch
SC Freiburg
- Philipp Treu RB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 56 · Hard to dribble past, Secure passer (top 4% of his position)
- Derry Scherhant LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 54 · Crosser, Big-chance creator (top 20% of his position)
FC Twente
- Wout Weghorst CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 59 · Takes high-quality shots, Gets into scoring positions (top 3% of his position)
- Sondre Ørjasæter LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 44 · Gets into scoring positions, Press-resistant (top 13% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Igor Matanovic
Igor Matanovic, 23 · SC Freiburg · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 62
Igor Matanovic, 23, plays as a centre-forward for SC Freiburg in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in duels won and shots. Weakest in shot quality (xG per shot). Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 62
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 57
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Duels won | 8.78 / 90 | 86% |
| Shots | 4.32 / 90 | 84% |
| Shots on target | 50% | 83% |
| Aerial duels won | 4.18 / 90 | 82% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.54 / 90 | 62% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★ Dribbling forward Second striker
Scout's notes: Duel winner, High shot volume, Accurate shooter.
- What Igor Matanovic is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Igor Matanovic's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
SC Freiburg vs FC Twente prediction
FC Twente should have more of the ball; SC Freiburg are a threat in the air and from set pieces; FC Twente work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.74 for SC Freiburg and 0.97 for FC Twente - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 52%. SC Freiburg have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: SC Freiburg 2-1 FC Twente
SC Freiburg vs FC Twente: what the numbers say
- 1. SC Freiburg unbeaten (win or draw) 80% between them
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.71 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- 3. 4 cards or fewer the two sides average 3.1 cards a match between them
- 4. 10 or more corners 15.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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SC Freiburg vs FC Twente: questions and answers
When is SC Freiburg vs FC Twente?
SC Freiburg vs FC Twente is on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Europa Conference League Gameweek 4.
Where is SC Freiburg vs FC Twente played?
At Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau, SC Freiburg's home ground.
Who will win SC Freiburg vs FC Twente?
SC Freiburg are the favourites: SC Freiburg 55%, draw 25%, FC Twente 20%. Our prediction is SC Freiburg 2-1 FC Twente.
Who is the player to watch in SC Freiburg vs FC Twente?
Igor Matanovic of SC Freiburg: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 62 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in SC Freiburg vs FC Twente?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.