Panathinaikos 2-1 CSKA Sofia: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Europa Conference League Matchday 3 · Thursday 5 November 2026 · Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis, Athens · referee M. Al Hakim · full time
Full time: Panathinaikos 2-1 CSKA Sofia
Panathinaikos beat CSKA Sofia 2-1 in Europa Conference League Matchday 3 on Thursday 5 November 2026 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis. The goals: Davide Calabria 41', Dinis Almeida 44', Vicente Taborda 68'. Moneyball's pre-match estimate had the result right.
How Panathinaikos won it
Davide Calabria put Panathinaikos ahead in the 41st minute, set up by Vicente Taborda. CSKA Sofia levelled at 1-1 in the 44th minute through Dinis Almeida, set up by Stefano Sensi. Vicente Taborda made it 2-1 to Panathinaikos in the 68th minute, set up by Andreas Tetteh.
It was 1-1 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.
The referee, M. Al Hakim, showed 4 yellow cards: 4 to Panathinaikos and 0 to CSKA Sofia.
Panathinaikos: J. Neestrup Hansen, 4-2-3-1 · CSKA Sofia: M. Gisdol, 4-1-4-1.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
The prediction was right. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Panathinaikos Win, and on 2-1 it was right.
The estimate's most likely result was a Panathinaikos win at 62%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-1 (10%).
On goals the estimate was close: about 3.0 expected, 3 scored.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 58%; with 3 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 55%; both did, in line with the estimate.
The pre-match consensus had a Panathinaikos win at 61%, the same lean as Moneyball.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-11-05, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
Panathinaikos had 12 shots on target, CSKA Sofia 5.
CSKA Sofia's goalkeeper made 10 saves.
Panathinaikos had 62% of the ball and turned it into the win.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Panathinaikos came into it with 3 Europa Conference League matches played, scoring 3.0 and conceding 1.0 a match, with 1.88 expected goals for and – against, and had won 100% of their matches.
CSKA Sofia came into it with 3 Europa Conference League matches played, scoring 1.3 and conceding 2.0 a match, with 1.28 expected goals for and – against, and had won 0% of their matches.
Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia: the match in numbers
| Panathinaikos | Match statistics | CSKA Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| 62% | Ball possession | 38% |
| 24 | Total shots | 9 |
| 12 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 9 | Big chances | 3 |
| 539 | Total passes | 331 |
| 82% | Pass accuracy | 71% |
| 12 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Offsides | 2 |
| 23 | Tackles | 32 |
| 4 | Saves | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 0 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Fedor Lapoukhov (CSKA Sofia), rated 8.8 by Sportmonks.
Panathinaikos
- Davide Calabria 8.6 1 goal
- Vicente Taborda 8.2 1 goal, 1 assist
- Georgios Kyriakopoulos 7.8
- Kings Kangwa 7.7
- Iñaki Peña 7.2
CSKA Sofia
- Fedor Lapoukhov 8.8
- Dinis Almeida 7.9 1 goal
- Jean-Philippe Gbamin 7.0
- Teodor Ivanov 6.7
- Pastor 6.7
The lowest-rated starter was Isaac Solet at 6.2. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Panathinaikos: Nordsjælland vs Panathinaikos Thursday 26 November 2026 · Europa Conference League
- CSKA Sofia: CSKA Sofia vs Trabzonspor Thursday 26 November 2026 · Europa Conference League
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia
What was the score in Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia?
Panathinaikos 2-1 CSKA Sofia (half-time 1-1), Europa Conference League, Thursday 5 November 2026.
Who scored in Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia?
Davide Calabria 41', Dinis Almeida 44', Vicente Taborda 68'.
Did Moneyball predict Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia correctly?
The prediction was right. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Panathinaikos Win, and on 2-1 it was right.
Who was man of the match in Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia?
Fedor Lapoukhov, rated 8.8 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia?
M. Al Hakim.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.