CSKA Sofia vs Trabzonspor Prediction and Stats | Europa Conference League Gameweek 4
Europa Conference League · Thursday 26 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Stadion Bâlgarska Armija, Sofia · updated 2026-11-13
CSKA Sofia welcome Trabzonspor to Stadion Bâlgarska Armija in Sofia in Europa Conference League Gameweek 4 action on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
CSKA Sofia have played 3 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 0% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 0% win rate. Trabzonspor have played 3 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 67% of them. Away from home they average 4.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: CSKA Sofia 35%, the draw 26%, Trabzonspor 39%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: CSKA Sofia 1.39, Trabzonspor 1.47.
- Over 2.5 goals: 54% · both teams to score: 58%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (3 and 3 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
CSKA Sofia: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.28 a match created (goals minus xG: +0.2).
- Shots: 15.7 a match, 5.7 on target.
- Possession: 44.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.72.
Trabzonspor: form and key numbers
In style Trabzonspor keep the ball, play long and direct, take players on.
- Expected goals: 2.12 a match created (goals minus xG: -0.3).
- Shots: 16.0 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 59.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.03.
CSKA Sofia vs Trabzonspor: season averages side by side
| CSKA Sofia | Per match this season | Trabzonspor |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Matches | 3 |
| 1.3 | Goals scored | 2.0 |
| 2.0 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 1.28 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.12 |
| 15.7 | Shots | 16.0 |
| 5.7 | On target | 5.0 |
| 44.7 | Possession % | 59.3 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 100% | Both teams scored % | 33% |
| 6.0 | Corners | 6.3 |
| 2.3 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.72 | Average rating | 7.03 |
Players to watch
Trabzonspor
- Franculino CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 58 · Accurate shooter, Takes high-quality shots (top 1% of his position)
- André Onana GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 57 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 41% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Mohamed Salah
Mohamed Salah, 34 · Trabzonspor · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 67
Mohamed Salah, 34, plays as a winger for Trabzonspor in the Süper Lig. Strongest for his role in key passes and expected goals. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 67
- ST · Centre-forward Accomplished, 53
- RM · Wide midfielder Competent, 38
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 3.84 / 90 | 96% |
| Expected goals | 0.44 / 90 | 94% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.42 / 90 | 94% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.58 / 90 | 90% |
| Big chances created | 0.59 / 90 | 86% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★½ Classic winger Winger
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Gets into scoring positions, Creator.
⚠ 9 goals from only 4.5 xG: finishing this far above his chances rarely lasts: check it is not a one-season wonder.
- What Mohamed Salah is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Mohamed Salah's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
CSKA Sofia vs Trabzonspor prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.39 for CSKA Sofia and 1.47 for Trabzonspor - with over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams scoring at 58%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: CSKA Sofia 1-1 Trabzonspor
CSKA Sofia vs Trabzonspor: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 39%
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.86 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (54%)
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 58% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 5.3 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 12.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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CSKA Sofia vs Trabzonspor: questions and answers
When is CSKA Sofia vs Trabzonspor?
CSKA Sofia vs Trabzonspor is on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Europa Conference League Gameweek 4.
Where is CSKA Sofia vs Trabzonspor played?
At Stadion Bâlgarska Armija, Sofia, CSKA Sofia's home ground.
Who will win CSKA Sofia vs Trabzonspor?
It is close: CSKA Sofia 35%, draw 26%, Trabzonspor 39%. Our prediction is CSKA Sofia 1-1 Trabzonspor.
Who is the player to watch in CSKA Sofia vs Trabzonspor?
Mohamed Salah of Trabzonspor: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 67 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in CSKA Sofia vs Trabzonspor?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.