Nordsjælland vs Panathinaikos Prediction and Stats | Europa Conference League Gameweek 4
Europa Conference League · Thursday 26 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Right to Dream Park, Farum · updated 2026-11-13
Nordsjælland welcome Panathinaikos to Right to Dream Park in Farum in Europa Conference League Gameweek 4 action on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Nordsjælland have played 3 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 0% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 60% win rate. Panathinaikos have played 3 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 3.0 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 100% of them. Away from home they average 5.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 67% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Nordsjælland 35%, the draw 26%, Panathinaikos 39%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Nordsjælland 1.41, Panathinaikos 1.49.
- Over 2.5 goals: 56% · both teams to score: 59%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (3 and 3 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Nordsjælland: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.86 a match created (goals minus xG: +3.3).
- Shots: 15.9 a match, 5.6 on target.
- Possession: 57.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 44% of matches (75% at home).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.96.
Panathinaikos: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.88 a match created (goals minus xG: +3.1).
- Shots: 18.3 a match, 7.9 on target.
- Possession: 54.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.90.
Nordsjælland vs Panathinaikos: season averages side by side
| Nordsjælland | Per match this season | Panathinaikos |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Matches | 3 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 3.0 |
| 1.7 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 1.86 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.88 |
| 15.9 | Shots | 18.3 |
| 5.6 | On target | 7.9 |
| 57.0 | Possession % | 54.9 |
| 44% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 33% | Both teams scored % | 100% |
| 5.6 | Corners | 7.4 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 2.2 |
| 6.96 | Average rating | 6.90 |
Nordsjælland vs Panathinaikos prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.41 for Nordsjælland and 1.49 for Panathinaikos - with over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams scoring at 59%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Nordsjælland 1-1 Panathinaikos
Nordsjælland vs Panathinaikos: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 39%
- 2. 3 or more goals 56% by the model, 2.91 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 59% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 5.0 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 13.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Nordsjælland vs Panathinaikos: questions and answers
When is Nordsjælland vs Panathinaikos?
Nordsjælland vs Panathinaikos is on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Europa Conference League Gameweek 4.
Where is Nordsjælland vs Panathinaikos played?
At Right to Dream Park, Farum, Nordsjælland's home ground.
Who will win Nordsjælland vs Panathinaikos?
It is close: Nordsjælland 35%, draw 26%, Panathinaikos 39%. Our prediction is Nordsjælland 1-1 Panathinaikos.
How many goals will there be in Nordsjælland vs Panathinaikos?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 56%.
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Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.