Orlando City vs Cincinnati Prediction and Stats
MLS · Friday 20 November 2026 · 00:30 UTC · Spectrum Stadium, Orlando · updated 2026-11-13
Orlando City welcome Cincinnati to Spectrum Stadium in Orlando in MLS action on Friday 20 November 2026, kick-off 00:30 UTC.
Orlando City have played 34 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.9 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 38% of them. At home they average 1.9 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 17 matches, with a 77% win rate. Cincinnati have played 34 matches in MLS this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 2.2 goals a game and winning 35% of them. Away from home they average 1.6 goals scored and 2.5 conceded over 17 matches, with a 25% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Orlando City 39%, the draw 21%, Cincinnati 40%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Orlando City 2.09, Cincinnati 2.11.
- Over 2.5 goals: 79% · both teams to score: 77%.
- Most likely score: 1–3 (5%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (34 and 34 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Orlando City: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.54 a match created, 1.96 conceded (goals minus xG: +10.8).
- Shots: 12.5 a match, 5.2 on target.
- Possession: 49.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 15% of matches (80% at home).
- Both teams scored in 68% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.79.
Cincinnati: form and key numbers
In style Cincinnati cross a lot, take players on, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.72 a match created, 1.50 conceded (goals minus xG: +8.4).
- Shots: 14.6 a match, 5.7 on target.
- Possession: 50.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 12% of matches (25% away).
- Both teams scored in 71% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 7.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.83.
Orlando City vs Cincinnati: season averages side by side
| Orlando City | Per match this season | Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Matches | 34 |
| 1.9 | Goals scored | 2.0 |
| 2.3 | Goals conceded | 2.2 |
| 1.54 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.72 |
| 1.96 | xG conceded | 1.50 |
| 12.5 | Shots | 14.6 |
| 5.2 | On target | 5.7 |
| 49.5 | Possession % | 50.6 |
| 15% | Clean sheets % | 12% |
| 68% | Both teams scored % | 71% |
| 4.0 | Corners | 5.0 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 2.1 |
| 6.79 | Average rating | 6.83 |
Players to watch
Orlando City
- Antoine Griezmann SS · Link-up forward · Moneyball Score 50 · Scores and makes the chances to keep scoring, Sets up goals from real chances (top 3% of his position)
- Joran Gerbet DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 31 · Secure passer, Hard to dribble past (top 2% of his position)
Cincinnati
- Tyrell Malacia LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 39 · Hard to dribble past, Creator (top 20% of his position)
- Ayoub Jabbari CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 34 · Duel winner, Dominant in the air (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Evander
Evander, 28 · Cincinnati · AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 60
Evander, 28, plays as an attacking midfielder for Cincinnati in the MLS. Strongest for his role in through balls and expected assists (est.). Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 60
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 56
- CM · Central midfielder Accomplished, 50
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Through balls | 0.29 / 90 | 92% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.47 / 90 | 91% |
| Big chances created | 0.87 / 90 | 90% |
| Key passes | 3.45 / 90 | 83% |
| Shots | 3.88 / 90 | 80% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Creator Attacking midfielder
- ★★★★ Link-up forward Second striker
Scout's notes: Through-ball threat, Creator, Big-chance creator.
- What Evander is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Orlando City vs Cincinnati prediction
Cincinnati should have more of the ball; Cincinnati work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 4.2 goals - 2.09 for Orlando City and 2.11 for Cincinnati - with over 2.5 goals at 79% and both teams scoring at 77%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Orlando City 2-2 Cincinnati
Orlando City vs Cincinnati: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 40%
- 2. 4 or more goals 60% by the model, 4.20 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 77% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 13.4 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 9.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Orlando City vs Cincinnati: questions and answers
When is Orlando City vs Cincinnati?
Orlando City vs Cincinnati is on Friday 20 November 2026, kick-off 00:30 UTC, in MLS.
Where is Orlando City vs Cincinnati played?
At Spectrum Stadium, Orlando, Orlando City's home ground.
Who will win Orlando City vs Cincinnati?
It is close: Orlando City 39%, draw 21%, Cincinnati 40%. Our prediction is Orlando City 2-2 Cincinnati.
Who is the player to watch in Orlando City vs Cincinnati?
Evander of Cincinnati: a creator with a Moneyball Score of 60 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Orlando City vs Cincinnati?
Moneyball's model expects about 4.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 79%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.