Chicago Fire vs Charlotte Prediction and Stats
MLS · Sunday 22 November 2026 · 23:30 UTC · Soldier Field, Chicago · updated 2026-11-13
Chicago Fire welcome Charlotte to Soldier Field in Chicago in MLS action on Sunday 22 November 2026, kick-off 23:30 UTC.
Chicago Fire have played 34 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.9 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 47% of them. At home they average 1.9 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 17 matches, with a 56% win rate. Charlotte have played 34 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.9 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 44% of them. Away from home they average 1.7 goals scored and 2.1 conceded over 17 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Chicago Fire are narrow favourites at 54%, with the draw at 21% and Charlotte at 25%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Chicago Fire 2.22, Charlotte 1.48.
- Over 2.5 goals: 72% · both teams to score: 69%.
- Most likely score: 3–1 (7%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (34 and 34 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Chicago Fire: form and key numbers
In style Chicago Fire create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.88 a match created, 1.42 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.2).
- Shots: 14.4 a match, 5.2 on target.
- Possession: 51.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 21% of matches (57% at home).
- Both teams scored in 74% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.84.
Charlotte: form and key numbers
In style Charlotte are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.59 a match created, 2.08 conceded (goals minus xG: +11.8).
- Shots: 11.6 a match, 4.6 on target.
- Possession: 46.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 21% of matches (29% away).
- Both teams scored in 68% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 4.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Chicago Fire vs Charlotte: season averages side by side
| Chicago Fire | Per match this season | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Matches | 34 |
| 1.9 | Goals scored | 1.9 |
| 1.6 | Goals conceded | 1.5 |
| 1.88 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.59 |
| 1.42 | xG conceded | 2.08 |
| 14.4 | Shots | 11.6 |
| 5.2 | On target | 4.6 |
| 51.6 | Possession % | 46.3 |
| 21% | Clean sheets % | 21% |
| 74% | Both teams scored % | 68% |
| 4.7 | Corners | 4.6 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 1.9 |
| 6.84 | Average rating | 6.87 |
Players to watch
Chicago Fire
- Hugo Cuypers CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 52 · Takes high-quality shots, Accurate shooter (top 1% of his position)
- Robert Lewandowski CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 34 · Takes high-quality shots, Rarely wastes a big chance (top 18% of his position)
Charlotte
- Kristijan Kahlina GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 51 · Secure passer, Shot-stopper (top 6% of his position)
- Allan Saint-Maximin LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 46 · Big-chance creator, Dribbler (top 13% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Philip Zinckernagel
Philip Zinckernagel, 31 · Chicago Fire · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 50
Philip Zinckernagel, 31, plays as a winger for Chicago Fire in the MLS. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and expected goals. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 50
- RM · Wide midfielder Natural, 49
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 2.10 / 90 | 98% |
| Expected goals | 0.41 / 90 | 83% |
| Big chances created | 0.55 / 90 | 74% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.32 / 90 | 74% |
| Key passes | 2.55 / 90 | 71% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★½ Direct wide midfielder Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Crosser, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Philip Zinckernagel is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Philip Zinckernagel's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Chicago Fire vs Charlotte prediction
Chicago Fire should have more of the ball, with Charlotte likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Charlotte go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals - 2.22 for Chicago Fire and 1.48 for Charlotte - with over 2.5 goals at 72% and both teams scoring at 69%. Chicago Fire have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Chicago Fire 3-1 Charlotte
Chicago Fire vs Charlotte: what the numbers say
- 1. Chicago Fire unbeaten (win or draw) 75% between them
- 2. 4 or more goals 51% by the model, 3.71 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 69% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 11.2 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 9.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Chicago Fire vs Charlotte: questions and answers
When is Chicago Fire vs Charlotte?
Chicago Fire vs Charlotte is on Sunday 22 November 2026, kick-off 23:30 UTC, in MLS.
Where is Chicago Fire vs Charlotte played?
At Soldier Field, Chicago, Chicago Fire's home ground.
Who will win Chicago Fire vs Charlotte?
Chicago Fire are the favourites: Chicago Fire 54%, draw 21%, Charlotte 25%. Our prediction is Chicago Fire 3-1 Charlotte.
Who is the player to watch in Chicago Fire vs Charlotte?
Philip Zinckernagel of Chicago Fire: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 50 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Chicago Fire vs Charlotte?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 72%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.