New England vs Philadelphia Union Prediction and Stats
MLS · Saturday 21 November 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Boston Stadium, Foxborough · updated 2026-11-13
New England welcome Philadelphia Union to Boston Stadium in Foxborough in MLS action on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
New England have played 34 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 53% of them. At home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 17 matches, with a 61% win rate. Philadelphia Union have played 34 matches in MLS this season, scoring 1.9 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 41% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.9 conceded over 17 matches, with a 43% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: New England 36%, the draw 25%, Philadelphia Union 40%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: New England 1.54, Philadelphia Union 1.63.
- Over 2.5 goals: 61% · both teams to score: 64%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (34 and 34 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
New England: form and key numbers
In style New England press high.
- Expected goals: 1.52 a match created, 1.57 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.5).
- Shots: 12.1 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 50.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 18% of matches (83% at home).
- Both teams scored in 62% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.91.
Philadelphia Union: form and key numbers
In style Philadelphia Union press high, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.06 a match created, 1.31 conceded (goals minus xG: -4.0).
- Shots: 16.6 a match, 5.4 on target.
- Possession: 46.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 21% of matches (29% away).
- Both teams scored in 68% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.2 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 4.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
New England vs Philadelphia Union: season averages side by side
| New England | Per match this season | Philadelphia Union |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Matches | 34 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 1.9 |
| 1.4 | Goals conceded | 1.5 |
| 1.52 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.06 |
| 1.57 | xG conceded | 1.31 |
| 12.1 | Shots | 16.6 |
| 4.8 | On target | 5.4 |
| 50.6 | Possession % | 46.9 |
| 18% | Clean sheets % | 21% |
| 62% | Both teams scored % | 68% |
| 4.8 | Corners | 6.2 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 2.3 |
| 6.91 | Average rating | 6.87 |
Players to watch
New England
- Jack Harrison LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 45 · Crosser, Creator (top 2% of his position)
- Matt Turner GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 39 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 24% of his position)
Philadelphia Union
- Milan Iloski CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 41 · Chance creator, Gets into scoring positions (top 20% of his position)
- Kai Wagner LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 34 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 14% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Cavan Sullivan
Cavan Sullivan, 17 · Philadelphia Union · RMF · Wide playmaker · Moneyball Score 45
Cavan Sullivan, 17, plays as a wide midfielder for Philadelphia Union in the MLS. Strongest for his role in expected assists (est.) and successful dribbles. Weakest in tackles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wide midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wide midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RM · Wide midfielder Natural, 45
- LM · Wide midfielder Accomplished, 42
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.32 / 90 | 86% |
| Successful dribbles | 2.55 / 90 | 82% |
| Expected goals | 0.36 / 90 | 73% |
| Key passes | 2.21 / 90 | 68% |
| Dispossessed | 0.88 / 90 | 55% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★ Direct wide midfielder Wide midfielder
- ★★½ Creative winger Winger
Scout's notes: Creator, Dribbler.
- What Cavan Sullivan is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Cavan Sullivan's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
New England vs Philadelphia Union prediction
New England should have more of the ball; New England press high to win the ball back; Philadelphia Union are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals - 1.54 for New England and 1.63 for Philadelphia Union - with over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams scoring at 64%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: New England 1-1 Philadelphia Union
New England vs Philadelphia Union: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 40%
- 2. 3 or more goals 61% by the model, 3.17 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 64% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 8.9 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 11.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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New England vs Philadelphia Union: questions and answers
When is New England vs Philadelphia Union?
New England vs Philadelphia Union is on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in MLS.
Where is New England vs Philadelphia Union played?
At Boston Stadium, Foxborough, New England's home ground.
Who will win New England vs Philadelphia Union?
It is close: New England 36%, draw 25%, Philadelphia Union 40%. Our prediction is New England 1-1 Philadelphia Union.
Who is the player to watch in New England vs Philadelphia Union?
Cavan Sullivan of Philadelphia Union: a wide playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 45 against every wide midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in New England vs Philadelphia Union?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 61%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.