Monza 0-1 Atalanta: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

How Atalanta won it

Nikola Krstović put Atalanta ahead in the 49th minute.

It was 0-0 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.

Ivan Juric of Monza was sent off in the 90th minute (+4). Ivan Jurić of Monza was sent off in the 90th minute (+4). The referee, C. Allegretta, showed 7 yellow cards: 5 to Monza and 2 to Atalanta.

Monza: I. Juric, 3-5-2 · Atalanta: M. Sarri, 4-2-3-1.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Over 2.75, and on 0-1 it was wrong.

The estimate's most likely result was an Atalanta win at 42%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-1 (10%).

The goals dried up: the estimate expected about 3.4 and the match produced one.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 65%; with 1 goal the under came in, against the way the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 67%; they did not both score, against the estimate.

The pre-match consensus had an Atalanta win at 47%, the same lean as Moneyball.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-11-08, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 1.44 for Monza and 2.02 for Atalanta.

Monza scored about 1.4 fewer than their chances were worth: poor finishing, or a goalkeeper at his best.

Atalanta left about 1.0 goals' worth of chances on the pitch.

Monza had 7 shots on target, Atalanta 7.

Atalanta's goalkeeper made 7 saves.

Atalanta had 51% of the ball and turned it into the win.

A red card changed the shape of the match, and no pre-match model can see one coming.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Monza came into it with 11 Serie A matches played, scoring 1.6 and conceding 2.3 a match, with 1.51 expected goals for and 1.55 against, and had won 18% of their matches.

Atalanta came into it with 11 Serie A matches played, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.8 a match, with 1.60 expected goals for and 1.82 against, and had won 36% of their matches.

Monza vs Atalanta: the match in numbers

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Marco Carnesecchi (Atalanta), rated 8.7 by Sportmonks.

Monza

• Noel Törnqvist 7.5
• Mathis Mout 7.4
• Lorenzo Lucchesi 7.4
• Jay Robinson 7.3
• Gustavo Varela 7.0

Atalanta

• Marco Carnesecchi 8.7
• Nikola Krstović 7.7 1 goal
• Giorgio Scalvini 7.6
• Mario Pašalić 7.5
• Lorenzo Bernasconi 7.2

The lowest-rated starter was Eddy Kouadio at 6.3. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

• Monza: Monza vs Fiorentina Monday 23 November 2026 · Serie A
• Atalanta: Atalanta vs Inter Sunday 22 November 2026 · Serie A

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Monza vs Atalanta

What was the score in Monza vs Atalanta?

Monza 0-1 Atalanta (half-time 0-0), Serie A, Sunday 8 November 2026.

Who scored in Monza vs Atalanta?

Nikola Krstović 49'.

Did Moneyball predict Monza vs Atalanta correctly?

The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Over 2.75, and on 0-1 it was wrong.

Who was man of the match in Monza vs Atalanta?

Marco Carnesecchi, rated 8.7 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Monza vs Atalanta?

C. Allegretta.