Krylya Sovetov 2-0 Orenburg: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

How Krylya Sovetov won it

Amar Rahmanovic put Krylya Sovetov ahead in the 4th minute, set up by Nikita Saltykov. Kazbek Mukailov made it 2-0 to Krylya Sovetov in the 70th minute.

It was 1-0 at half-time.

Aleksey Tataev of Orenburg was sent off in the 51st minute for a second yellow card. Jhon Alex Palacios of Orenburg was sent off in the 62nd minute for a second yellow card. The referee, A. Chistyakov, showed 8 yellow cards: 2 to Krylya Sovetov and 6 to Orenburg.

Krylya Sovetov: S. Bulatov, 4-2-3-1 · Orenburg: I. Akhmetzyanov, 4-2-3-1.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

A Krylya Sovetov win was the estimate's call at 39%, and it came in. The exact score was another matter: 2-1 was the likeliest, 2-0 the real one.

On goals the estimate was close: about 2.5 expected, 2 scored.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 47%; with 2 goals the under came in, as the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 53%; they did not both score, against the estimate.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-11-07, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 0.95 for Krylya Sovetov and 3.12 for Orenburg.

Krylya Sovetov scored about 1.1 more than their chances were worth: clinical finishing, or a goalkeeper having a bad day.

Orenburg left about 3.1 goals' worth of chances on the pitch.

Orenburg created the better chances, 3.12 xG to 0.95, and still lost. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.

The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Krylya Sovetov to create more, and Orenburg did.

Krylya Sovetov had 5 shots on target, Orenburg 3.

Krylya Sovetov had 59% of the ball and turned it into the win.

A red card changed the shape of the match, and no pre-match model can see one coming.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Krylya Sovetov came into it with 14 Russian Premier League matches played, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.4 a match, with 1.56 expected goals for and 1.27 against, and had won 29% of their matches.

Orenburg came into it with 14 Russian Premier League matches played, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.0 a match, with 1.36 expected goals for and 1.57 against, and had won 21% of their matches.

Krylya Sovetov vs Orenburg: the match in numbers

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Yuriy Gorshkov (Krylya Sovetov), rated 8.5 by Sportmonks.

Krylya Sovetov

• Yuriy Gorshkov 8.5
• Fernando Costanza 7.6
• Sergey Bozhin 7.3
• Dani Fernández 7.3
• Nikita Kokarev 7.2

Orenburg

• Jordhy Thompson 7.3
• Gedeon Guzina 6.9
• Ruslan Kul 6.8
• Emil Tsenov 6.6
• Bogdan Ovsyannikov 6.5

The lowest-rated starter was Jhon Alex Palacios at 5.9. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

• Krylya Sovetov: Rostov vs Krylya Sovetov Friday 20 November 2026 · Russian Premier League
• Orenburg: Orenburg vs Baltika Kaliningrad Saturday 21 November 2026 · Russian Premier League

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Krylya Sovetov vs Orenburg

What was the score in Krylya Sovetov vs Orenburg?

Krylya Sovetov 2-0 Orenburg (half-time 1-0), Russian Premier League, Sunday 8 November 2026.

Who scored in Krylya Sovetov vs Orenburg?

Amar Rahmanovic 4', Kazbek Mukailov 70'.

Did Moneyball predict Krylya Sovetov vs Orenburg correctly?

A Krylya Sovetov win was the estimate's call at 39%, and it came in. The exact score was another matter: 2-1 was the likeliest, 2-0 the real one.

Who was man of the match in Krylya Sovetov vs Orenburg?

Yuriy Gorshkov, rated 8.5 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Krylya Sovetov vs Orenburg?

A. Chistyakov.