Kauno Žalgiris vs Riga Prediction and Stats | Europa Conference League Gameweek 4
Europa Conference League · Thursday 26 November 2026 · 17:45 UTC · S. Dariaus ir S. Gireno stadionas, S. Dariaus ir S. Gireno stadionas · updated 2026-11-13
Kauno Žalgiris welcome Riga to S. Dariaus ir S. Gireno stadionas in S. Dariaus ir S. Gireno stadionas in Europa Conference League Gameweek 4 action on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC.
Kauno Žalgiris have played 3 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 0.3 and conceding 3.7 goals a game and winning 0% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 4.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 0% win rate. Riga have played 3 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 0% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 25% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Riga are narrow favourites at 43%, with the draw at 27% and Kauno Žalgiris at 30%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Kauno Žalgiris 1.22, Riga 1.50.
- Over 2.5 goals: 51% · both teams to score: 55%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (3 and 3 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Kauno Žalgiris: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.87 a match created (goals minus xG: -1.6).
- Shots: 7.0 a match, 1.3 on target.
- Possession: 30.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 1.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.7 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.42.
Riga: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.10 a match created (goals minus xG: +5.1).
- Shots: 20.8 a match, 7.3 on target.
- Possession: 57.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 22% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 78% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.72.
Kauno Žalgiris vs Riga: season averages side by side
| Kauno Žalgiris | Per match this season | Riga |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Matches | 3 |
| 0.3 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 3.7 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 0.87 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.10 |
| 7.0 | Shots | 20.8 |
| 1.3 | On target | 7.3 |
| 30.0 | Possession % | 57.6 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 22% |
| 33% | Both teams scored % | 78% |
| 1.0 | Corners | 6.3 |
| 2.7 | Yellow cards | 1.9 |
| 6.42 | Average rating | 6.72 |
Kauno Žalgiris vs Riga prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.22 for Kauno Žalgiris and 1.50 for Riga - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 55%. Riga have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Kauno Žalgiris 1-2 Riga
Kauno Žalgiris vs Riga: what the numbers say
- 1. Riga unbeaten (win or draw) 70% between them
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.72 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 5.6 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 corners or fewer 7.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Kauno Žalgiris vs Riga: questions and answers
When is Kauno Žalgiris vs Riga?
Kauno Žalgiris vs Riga is on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC, in Europa Conference League Gameweek 4.
Where is Kauno Žalgiris vs Riga played?
At S. Dariaus ir S. Gireno stadionas, S. Dariaus ir S. Gireno stadionas, Kauno Žalgiris's home ground.
Who will win Kauno Žalgiris vs Riga?
Riga are the favourites: Kauno Žalgiris 30%, draw 27%, Riga 43%. Our prediction is Kauno Žalgiris 1-2 Riga.
How many goals will there be in Kauno Žalgiris vs Riga?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
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Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.