Jablonec vs Lugano Prediction and Stats | Europa Conference League Gameweek 4
Europa Conference League · Thursday 26 November 2026 · 17:45 UTC · Stadion Střelnice, Jablonec nad Nisou · updated 2026-11-13
Jablonec welcome Lugano to Stadion Střelnice in Jablonec nad Nisou in Europa Conference League Gameweek 4 action on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC.
Jablonec have played 3 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 0% of them. At home they average 0.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 75% win rate. Lugano have played 3 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 3.7 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 100% of them. Away from home they average 5.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 29% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Jablonec 33%, the draw 26%, Lugano 41%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Jablonec 1.37, Lugano 1.53.
- Over 2.5 goals: 55% · both teams to score: 59%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (3 and 3 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Jablonec: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.98 a match created (goals minus xG: +3.2).
- Shots: 9.2 a match, 3.3 on target.
- Possession: 43.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 44% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 44% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.62.
Lugano: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 2.24 a match created (goals minus xG: +3.9).
- Shots: 16.3 a match, 5.9 on target.
- Possession: 54.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.00.
Jablonec vs Lugano: season averages side by side
| Jablonec | Per match this season | Lugano |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Matches | 3 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 3.7 |
| 1.3 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 0.98 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.24 |
| 9.2 | Shots | 16.3 |
| 3.3 | On target | 5.9 |
| 43.1 | Possession % | 54.7 |
| 44% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 44% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 3.3 | Corners | 5.0 |
| 1.9 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.62 | Average rating | 7.00 |
Jablonec vs Lugano prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.37 for Jablonec and 1.53 for Lugano - with over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams scoring at 59%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Jablonec 1-1 Lugano
Jablonec vs Lugano: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 41%
- 2. 3 or more goals 55% by the model, 2.90 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 59% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 4.5 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 corners or fewer 8.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Jablonec vs Lugano: questions and answers
When is Jablonec vs Lugano?
Jablonec vs Lugano is on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC, in Europa Conference League Gameweek 4.
Where is Jablonec vs Lugano played?
At Stadion Střelnice, Jablonec nad Nisou, Jablonec's home ground.
Who will win Jablonec vs Lugano?
It is close: Jablonec 33%, draw 26%, Lugano 41%. Our prediction is Jablonec 1-1 Lugano.
How many goals will there be in Jablonec vs Lugano?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 55%.
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Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.