Independiente 0-1 Boca Juniors: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

How Boca Juniors won it

The opening goal came in the 88th minute: Facundo Herrera for Boca Juniors, set up by Sebastián Villa. A late goal, and the one that decided the result.

It was 0-0 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.

The referee, N. Arasa, showed 7 yellow cards: 3 to Independiente and 4 to Boca Juniors.

Independiente: J. Viera Castro, 4-4-2 · Boca Juniors: R. Arruabarrena, 4-2-3-1.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

The prediction got the result right. Before kick-off Moneyball made a Boca Juniors win the most likely outcome at 46%, and that is what happened, though the most likely score was 0-2 rather than 0-1.

The goals dried up: the estimate expected about 2.4 and the match produced one.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 44%; with 1 goal the under came in, as the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 49%; they did not both score, in line with the estimate.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-25, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 1.43 for Independiente and 1.82 for Boca Juniors.

Independiente scored about 1.4 fewer than their chances were worth: poor finishing, or a goalkeeper at his best.

Independiente had 5 shots on target, Boca Juniors 4.

Boca Juniors had 66% of the ball and turned it into the win.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Independiente came into it with 33 Liga Profesional Argentina matches played, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.2 a match, with 1.10 expected goals for and 1.23 against, and had won 36% of their matches.

Boca Juniors came into it with 33 Liga Profesional Argentina matches played, scoring 1.4 and conceding 0.8 a match, with 1.52 expected goals for and 0.79 against, and had won 52% of their matches.

Independiente vs Boca Juniors: the match in numbers

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Facundo Herrera (Boca Juniors), rated 7.8 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal.

Independiente

• Santiago Montiel 7.5
• Chimy Ávila 7.5
• Maximiliano Meza 7.4
• Sebastián Valdez 7.1
• Nahuel Banegas 7.0

Boca Juniors

• Facundo Herrera 7.8 1 goal
• Álvaro Montero 7.7
• Leandro Paredes 7.2
• Leandro Lozano 7.2
• Milton Delgado 7.2

The lowest-rated starter was Leonel Flores at 6.2. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

• Independiente: Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente Saturday 21 November 2026 · Liga Profesional Argentina
• Boca Juniors: Boca Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia Thursday 26 November 2026 · Liga Profesional Argentina

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Independiente vs Boca Juniors

What was the score in Independiente vs Boca Juniors?

Independiente 0-1 Boca Juniors (half-time 0-0), Liga Profesional Argentina, Sunday 25 October 2026.

Who scored in Independiente vs Boca Juniors?

Facundo Herrera 88'.

Did Moneyball predict Independiente vs Boca Juniors correctly?

The prediction got the result right. Before kick-off Moneyball made a Boca Juniors win the most likely outcome at 46%, and that is what happened, though the most likely score was 0-2 rather than 0-1.

Who was man of the match in Independiente vs Boca Juniors?

Facundo Herrera, rated 7.8 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Independiente vs Boca Juniors?

N. Arasa.