Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente Prediction and Stats
Liga Profesional Argentina · Saturday 21 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Estadio Diego Armando Maradona, Capital Federal · updated 2026-11-13
Argentinos Juniors welcome Independiente to Estadio Diego Armando Maradona in Capital Federal in Liga Profesional Argentina action on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Argentinos Juniors have played 35 matches in Liga Profesional Argentina this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 54% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 0.6 conceded over 19 matches, with a 68% win rate. Independiente have played 33 matches in Liga Profesional Argentina this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 36% of them. Away from home they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.1 conceded over 17 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Argentinos Juniors are narrow favourites at 47%, with the draw at 28% and Independiente at 25%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Argentinos Juniors 1.44, Independiente 0.98.
- Over 2.5 goals: 44% · both teams to score: 49%.
- Most likely score: 2–0 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (35 and 33 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Argentinos Juniors: form and key numbers
In style Argentinos Juniors keep the ball, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.25 a match created, 1.24 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.9).
- Shots: 14.0 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 60.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 43% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 46% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 5.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.90.
Independiente: form and key numbers
In style Independiente play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.10 a match created, 1.23 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.7).
- Shots: 13.1 a match, 3.9 on target.
- Possession: 51.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 27% of matches (44% away).
- Both teams scored in 58% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.6 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 5.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.80.
Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente: season averages side by side
| Argentinos Juniors | Per match this season | Independiente |
|---|---|---|
| 35 | Matches | 33 |
| 1.2 | Goals scored | 1.2 |
| 0.8 | Goals conceded | 1.2 |
| 1.25 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.10 |
| 1.24 | xG conceded | 1.23 |
| 14.0 | Shots | 13.1 |
| 4.7 | On target | 3.9 |
| 60.9 | Possession % | 51.2 |
| 43% | Clean sheets % | 27% |
| 46% | Both teams scored % | 58% |
| 5.8 | Corners | 5.6 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 2.3 |
| 6.90 | Average rating | 6.80 |
Players to watch
Argentinos Juniors
- Claudio Bravo LB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 54 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
- Gabriel Florentín AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 50 · Creator, Big-chance creator (top 28% of his position)
Independiente
- Juan Fedorco CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 51 · Dominant in the air, Duel winner (top 4% of his position)
- Felipe Tempone CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 50 · Accurate shooter, Gets into scoring positions (top 22% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Francisco Álvarez
Francisco Álvarez, 26 · Argentinos Juniors · CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 54
Francisco Álvarez, 26, plays as a centre-back for Argentinos Juniors in the Argentine Liga Profesional. Strongest for his role in long balls and interceptions. Weakest in blocked shots. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 54
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Long balls | 4.43 / 90 | 91% |
| Interceptions | 2.14 / 90 | 87% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.33 / 90 | 84% |
| Duels won | 5.86 / 90 | 70% |
| Clearances | 6.58 / 90 | 63% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★ Stopper Centre-back
- ★★★ Inverted full-back Full-back
- ★★★ Ball-playing centre-back Centre-back
Scout's notes: Long passer, Reads the game, Dominant in the air.
- What Francisco Álvarez is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Francisco Álvarez's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente prediction
Argentinos Juniors should have more of the ball, with Independiente likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Argentinos Juniors work the ball wide and cross; Independiente are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals - 1.44 for Argentinos Juniors and 0.98 for Independiente - with over 2.5 goals at 44% and both teams scoring at 49%. Argentinos Juniors have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Argentinos Juniors 2-0 Independiente
Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente: what the numbers say
- 1. Argentinos Juniors unbeaten (win or draw) 75% between them
- 2. 2 goals or fewer 56% by the model, 2.43 goals expected
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 14.7 cards a match between them
- 4. 10 or more corners 11.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente: questions and answers
When is Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente?
Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente is on Saturday 21 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Liga Profesional Argentina.
Where is Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente played?
At Estadio Diego Armando Maradona, Capital Federal, Argentinos Juniors's home ground.
Who will win Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente?
Argentinos Juniors are the favourites: Argentinos Juniors 47%, draw 28%, Independiente 25%. Our prediction is Argentinos Juniors 2-0 Independiente.
Who is the player to watch in Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente?
Francisco Álvarez of Argentinos Juniors: a stopper with a Moneyball Score of 54 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 44%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.