Boca Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia Prediction and Stats
Liga Profesional Argentina · Thursday 26 November 2026 · 00:00 UTC · Estadio Alberto José Armando, Buenos Aires · updated 2026-11-13
Boca Juniors welcome Independiente Rivadavia to Estadio Alberto José Armando in Buenos Aires in Liga Profesional Argentina action on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 00:00 UTC.
Boca Juniors have played 33 matches in Liga Profesional Argentina this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 52% of them. At home they average 1.4 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 17 matches, with a 59% win rate. Independiente Rivadavia have played 33 matches in Liga Profesional Argentina this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 48% of them. Away from home they average 0.9 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 16 matches, with a 31% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Boca Juniors are narrow favourites at 54%, with the draw at 25% and Independiente Rivadavia at 20%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Boca Juniors 1.71, Independiente Rivadavia 0.96.
- Over 2.5 goals: 50% · both teams to score: 51%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (33 and 33 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Boca Juniors: form and key numbers
In style Boca Juniors keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.52 a match created, 0.79 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.1).
- Shots: 14.4 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 60.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 48% of matches (63% at home).
- Both teams scored in 48% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.96.
Independiente Rivadavia: form and key numbers
In style Independiente Rivadavia play long and direct, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.33 a match created, 1.13 conceded (goals minus xG: +7.2).
- Shots: 14.2 a match, 4.9 on target.
- Possession: 47.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 21% of matches (86% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.1 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.81.
Boca Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia: season averages side by side
| Boca Juniors | Per match this season | Independiente Rivadavia |
|---|---|---|
| 33 | Matches | 33 |
| 1.4 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 0.8 | Goals conceded | 1.2 |
| 1.52 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.33 |
| 0.79 | xG conceded | 1.13 |
| 14.4 | Shots | 14.2 |
| 4.7 | On target | 4.9 |
| 60.7 | Possession % | 47.9 |
| 48% | Clean sheets % | 21% |
| 48% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 5.4 | Corners | 4.1 |
| 2.3 | Yellow cards | 2.2 |
| 6.96 | Average rating | 6.81 |
Players to watch
Boca Juniors
- Enner Valencia CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 61 · Gets into scoring positions, Takes high-quality shots (top 25% of his position)
- Adam Bareiro CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 59 · Takes high-quality shots, Accurate shooter (top 3% of his position)
Independiente Rivadavia
- Luis Sequeira AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 57 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 16% of his position)
- Matías Reali RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 47 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 2% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Álex Arce
Álex Arce, 31 · Independiente Rivadavia · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 58
Álex Arce, 31, plays as a centre-forward for Independiente Rivadavia in the Argentine Liga Profesional. Strongest for his role in aerial duels won and duels won. Weakest in shots. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 58
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 50
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Aerial duels won | 6.35 / 90 | 99% |
| Duels won | 8.58 / 90 | 92% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.19 xG/shot | 87% |
| Expected goals | 0.52 / 90 | 58% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.49 / 90 | 51% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★½ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Dominant in the air, Duel winner, Takes high-quality shots.
- What Álex Arce is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Boca Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia prediction
Boca Juniors should have more of the ball, with Independiente Rivadavia likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Boca Juniors work the ball wide and cross; Independiente Rivadavia are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.71 for Boca Juniors and 0.96 for Independiente Rivadavia - with over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams scoring at 51%. Boca Juniors have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Boca Juniors 2-1 Independiente Rivadavia
Boca Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia: what the numbers say
- 1. Boca Juniors unbeaten (win or draw) 80% between them
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.67 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (50%)
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 6.5 cards a match between them
- 4. 9 or more corners 9.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Liga Profesional Argentina previews
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- Defensa y Justicia vs Barracas Central Saturday 21 November 2026
- Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente Saturday 21 November 2026
- Rosario Central vs Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza Sunday 22 November 2026
- River Plate vs Lanús Sunday 22 November 2026
- Instituto vs Huracán Monday 23 November 2026
- Gimnasia La Plata vs Newell's Old Boys Monday 23 November 2026
Boca Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia: questions and answers
When is Boca Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia?
Boca Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia is on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 00:00 UTC, in Liga Profesional Argentina.
Where is Boca Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia played?
At Estadio Alberto José Armando, Buenos Aires, Boca Juniors's home ground.
Who will win Boca Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia?
Boca Juniors are the favourites: Boca Juniors 54%, draw 25%, Independiente Rivadavia 20%. Our prediction is Boca Juniors 2-1 Independiente Rivadavia.
Who is the player to watch in Boca Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia?
Álex Arce of Independiente Rivadavia: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 58 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Boca Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 50%.
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Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.