Genoa 2-1 Fiorentina: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

How Genoa won it

The opening goal came in the 7th minute: Milutin Osmajic for Genoa, set up by Mikael Egill Ellertsson. Junior Messias made it 2-0 to Genoa in the 15th minute, set up by Milutin Osmajic. An own goal by Johan Vásquez made it 2-1 to Fiorentina in the 73rd minute.

It was 2-0 at half-time.

The referee, F. Maresca, showed 8 yellow cards: 5 to Genoa and 3 to Fiorentina.

Genoa: D. De Rossi, 4-2-3-1 · Fiorentina: P. Vanoli, 4-2-3-1.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

The prediction got the result right. Before kick-off Moneyball made a Genoa win the most likely outcome at 37%, and that is what happened, though the most likely score was 1-1 rather than 2-1.

On goals the estimate was close: about 2.8 expected, 3 scored.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 54%; with 3 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 58%; both did, in line with the estimate.

The pre-match consensus had a Fiorentina win at 41%, a different lean from Moneyball's.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-09, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 1.17 for Genoa and 1.02 for Fiorentina.

Genoa had 4 shots on target, Fiorentina 3.

Fiorentina had 63% of the ball, but Genoa took the points.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Genoa came into it with 11 Serie A matches played, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.4 a match, with 0.98 expected goals for and 1.30 against, and had won 36% of their matches.

Fiorentina came into it with 11 Serie A matches played, scoring 1.6 and conceding 2.3 a match, with 1.72 expected goals for and 1.63 against, and had won 18% of their matches.

Genoa vs Fiorentina: the match in numbers

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Milutin Osmajic (Genoa), rated 8.3 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal, 1 assist.

Genoa

• Milutin Osmajic 8.3 1 goal, 1 assist
• Mikael Egill Ellertsson 7.5 1 assist
• Junior Messias 7.4 1 goal
• Stephan El Shaarawy 6.8
• Justin Bijlow 6.8

Fiorentina

• Cher Ndour 7.3
• Franco Mastantuono 7.0
• Mateo Pellegrino 7.0
• Alieu Njie 6.9
• Nicolò Fagioli 6.9

The lowest-rated starter was Luca Ranieri at 5.7. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

• Genoa: Sassuolo vs Genoa Sunday 22 November 2026 · Serie A
• Fiorentina: Monza vs Fiorentina Monday 23 November 2026 · Serie A

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Genoa vs Fiorentina

What was the score in Genoa vs Fiorentina?

Genoa 2-1 Fiorentina (half-time 2-0), Serie A, Saturday 10 October 2026.

Who scored in Genoa vs Fiorentina?

Milutin Osmajic 7', Junior Messias 15'.

Did Moneyball predict Genoa vs Fiorentina correctly?

The prediction got the result right. Before kick-off Moneyball made a Genoa win the most likely outcome at 37%, and that is what happened, though the most likely score was 1-1 rather than 2-1.

Who was man of the match in Genoa vs Fiorentina?

Milutin Osmajic, rated 8.3 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Genoa vs Fiorentina?

F. Maresca.