Flamengo 3-2 Atlético Mineiro: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Brasileirão Matchday 32 · Monday 26 October 2026 · Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Rio de Janeiro · referee R. Pereira de Lima · full time
Full time: Flamengo 3-2 Atlético Mineiro
Flamengo 3-2 Atlético Mineiro: Flamengo took the points in Brasileirão Matchday 32 on Monday 26 October 2026 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. The goals: Bernard 7', Gonzalo Plata 34', Giorgian de Arrascaeta 41', Renan Lodi 59', Jorge Carrascal 90+9'. Moneyball's pre-match estimate had the result right.
How Flamengo won it
Bernard put Atlético Mineiro ahead in the 7th minute, set up by Angelo Preciado. Flamengo levelled at 1-1 in the 34th minute through Gonzalo Plata, set up by Guillermo Varela. Flamengo turned it round: Giorgian de Arrascaeta made it 2-1 in the 41st minute, set up by Samuel Lino. Atlético Mineiro levelled at 2-2 in the 59th minute through Renan Lodi, set up by Victor Hugo. Jorge Carrascal from the penalty spot made it 3-2 to Flamengo in the 90th minute (+9).
It was 2-1 at half-time.
The lead changed hands once.
The referee, R. Pereira de Lima, showed 4 yellow cards: 2 to Flamengo and 2 to Atlético Mineiro.
Flamengo: J. Nunes Alves Sousa Jardim, 4-2-3-1 · Atlético Mineiro: E. Domínguez, 4-4-2.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
The prediction was right. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was HT Flamengo -0.50, and on the half-time score, 2-1 it was right.
The estimate's most likely result was a Flamengo win at 73%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 2-0 (12%).
The match had far more goals than expected: the estimate was about 3.2 goals and there were 5.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 62%; with 5 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 51%; both did, in line with the estimate.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-26, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 1.00 for Flamengo and 2.95 for Atlético Mineiro.
Flamengo scored about 2.0 more than their chances were worth: clinical finishing, or a goalkeeper having a bad day.
Atlético Mineiro created the better chances, 2.95 xG to 1.00, and still lost. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.
The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Flamengo to create more, and Atlético Mineiro did.
Flamengo had 9 shots on target, Atlético Mineiro 4.
Atlético Mineiro's goalkeeper made 6 saves.
Flamengo had 72% of the ball and turned it into the win.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Flamengo came into it with 34 Brasileirão matches played, scoring 2.1 and conceding 0.8 a match, with 1.78 expected goals for and 0.95 against, and had won 68% of their matches.
Atlético Mineiro came into it with 34 Brasileirão matches played, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.2 a match, with 1.34 expected goals for and 1.35 against, and had won 41% of their matches.
Flamengo vs Atlético Mineiro: the match in numbers
| Flamengo | Match statistics | Atlético Mineiro |
|---|---|---|
| 72% | Ball possession | 28% |
| 1.00 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.95 |
| 29 | Total shots | 5 |
| 9 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 4 | Big chances | 3 |
| 804 | Total passes | 328 |
| 92% | Pass accuracy | 79% |
| 14 | Corners | 0 |
| 9 | Fouls | 15 |
| 0 | Offsides | 3 |
| 12 | Tackles | 19 |
| 2 | Saves | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Giorgian de Arrascaeta (Flamengo), rated 8.6 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal.
Flamengo
- Giorgian de Arrascaeta 8.6 1 goal
- Samuel Lino 7.6 1 assist
- Guillermo Varela 7.6 1 assist
- Gonzalo Plata 7.5 1 goal
- Erick Pulgar 7.4
Atlético Mineiro
- Gabriel Delfim 7.6
- Victor Hugo 7.5 1 assist
- Vitão 7.2
- Bernard 7.2 1 goal
- Angelo Preciado 7.0 1 assist
The lowest-rated starter was Pedro at 6.3. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Flamengo: Flamengo vs Athletico PR Wednesday 18 November 2026 · Brasileirão
- Atlético Mineiro: Mirassol vs Atlético Mineiro Saturday 14 November 2026 · Brasileirão
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Flamengo vs Atlético Mineiro
What was the score in Flamengo vs Atlético Mineiro?
Flamengo 3-2 Atlético Mineiro (half-time 2-1), Brasileirão, Monday 26 October 2026.
Who scored in Flamengo vs Atlético Mineiro?
Bernard 7', Gonzalo Plata 34', Giorgian de Arrascaeta 41', Renan Lodi 59', Jorge Carrascal 90+9'.
Did Moneyball predict Flamengo vs Atlético Mineiro correctly?
The prediction was right. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was HT Flamengo -0.50, and on the half-time score, 2-1 it was right.
Who was man of the match in Flamengo vs Atlético Mineiro?
Giorgian de Arrascaeta, rated 8.6 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Flamengo vs Atlético Mineiro?
R. Pereira de Lima.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.