Cincinnati 1-0 Philadelphia Union: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
MLS · Saturday 31 October 2026 · TQL Stadium · referee A. Chapman · full time
Full time: Cincinnati 1-0 Philadelphia Union
Cincinnati won 1-0 at home to Philadelphia Union in MLS on Saturday 31 October 2026. The goals: Ayoub Jabbari 70'. It went against Moneyball's pre-match estimate.
How Cincinnati won it
The opening goal came in the 70th minute: Ayoub Jabbari for Cincinnati, set up by Evander.
It was 0-0 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.
Cincinnati: P. Noonan, 3-1-4-2 · Philadelphia Union: R. Richter, 4-4-2.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
A miss for the model: 43% for a Philadelphia Union win, 36% for a Cincinnati win, and football chose the second.
The goals dried up: the estimate expected about 3.9 and the match produced one.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 75%; with 1 goal the under came in, against the way the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 74%; they did not both score, against the estimate.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-31, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 1.43 for Cincinnati and 0.67 for Philadelphia Union.
The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Philadelphia Union to create more, and Cincinnati did.
Cincinnati had 2 shots on target, Philadelphia Union 6.
Cincinnati's goalkeeper made 6 saves.
Cincinnati had 51% of the ball and turned it into the win.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Cincinnati came into it with 34 MLS matches played, scoring 2.0 and conceding 2.2 a match, with 1.72 expected goals for and 1.50 against, and had won 35% of their matches.
Philadelphia Union came into it with 34 MLS matches played, scoring 1.9 and conceding 1.5 a match, with 2.06 expected goals for and 1.31 against, and had won 41% of their matches.
Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union: the match in numbers
| Cincinnati | Match statistics | Philadelphia Union |
|---|---|---|
| 51% | Ball possession | 49% |
| 1.43 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.67 |
| 7 | Total shots | 15 |
| 2 | Shots on target | 6 |
| 1 | Big chances | 4 |
| 429 | Total passes | 406 |
| 79% | Pass accuracy | 75% |
| 3 | Corners | 12 |
| 11 | Fouls | 4 |
| 0 | Offsides | 2 |
| 11 | Tackles | 19 |
| 6 | Saves | 1 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Roman Celentano (Cincinnati), rated 8.4 by Sportmonks.
Cincinnati
- Roman Celentano 8.4
- Evander 7.3 1 assist
- Bryan Ramírez 7.2
- Nick Hagglund 7.1
- Teenage Hadebe 7.1
Philadelphia Union
- Kai Wagner 7.8
- Bruno Damiani 7.2
- Neil Pierre 7.1
- Nathan Harriel 7.1
- Ben Bender 7.1
The lowest-rated starter was Kévin Denkey at 6.2. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Cincinnati: Orlando City vs Cincinnati Friday 20 November 2026 · MLS
- Philadelphia Union: New England vs Philadelphia Union Saturday 21 November 2026 · MLS
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union
What was the score in Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union?
Cincinnati 1-0 Philadelphia Union (half-time 0-0), MLS, Saturday 31 October 2026.
Who scored in Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union?
Ayoub Jabbari 70'.
Did Moneyball predict Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union correctly?
A miss for the model: 43% for a Philadelphia Union win, 36% for a Cincinnati win, and football chose the second.
Who was man of the match in Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union?
Roman Celentano, rated 8.4 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union?
A. Chapman.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.