Cardiff City 5-4 Burnley: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Championship Matchday 15 · Saturday 7 November 2026 · Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff · referee O. Langford · full time
Full time: Cardiff City 5-4 Burnley
Cardiff City beat Burnley 5-4 in Championship Matchday 15 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at Cardiff City Stadium. The goals: Andréas Hountondji 15', Marcus Edwards 25', Ollie Tanner 40', Largie Ramazani 55', Yousef Salech 65', Jack Moylan 75', Yousef Salech 82', Alex Robertson 90+4'. Moneyball's pre-match estimate had the result right.
How Cardiff City won it
Burnley struck first through Andréas Hountondji in the 15th minute, set up by Lucas Pires. Marcus Edwards made it 0-2 to Burnley in the 25th minute, set up by Jaydon Banel. Ollie Tanner made it 1-2 to Cardiff City in the 40th minute, set up by Rubin Colwill. Largie Ramazani made it 1-3 to Burnley in the 55th minute. An own goal by Alex Robertson made it 1-4 to Burnley in the 62nd minute. Yousef Salech made it 2-4 to Cardiff City in the 65th minute, set up by Cian Ashford. Jack Moylan from the penalty spot made it 3-4 to Cardiff City in the 75th minute. Cardiff City levelled at 4-4 in the 82nd minute through Yousef Salech, set up by Rubin Colwill. Cardiff City turned it round: Alex Robertson made it 5-4 in the 90th minute (+4), set up by Chris Willock. A late goal, and the one that decided the result.
Burnley led by three and lost: Cardiff City came back to win it.
It was 1-2 at half-time, and the second half turned the match the other way.
Yousef Salech scored twice.
The lead changed hands once.
The referee, O. Langford, showed 7 yellow cards: 4 to Cardiff City and 3 to Burnley.
Cardiff City: B. Barry-Murphy, 4-1-4-1 · Burnley: F. Celestini, 4-2-3-1.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
Moneyball's Match Board pick, Cardiff City -0.50, was right: 5-4 bears it out.
The estimate's most likely result was a Cardiff City win at 54%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 2-1 (9%).
The match had far more goals than expected: the estimate was about 3.6 goals and there were 9.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 69%; with 9 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 68%; both did, in line with the estimate.
The pre-match consensus had a Cardiff City win at 46%, the same lean as Moneyball.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-11-07, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 2.17 for Cardiff City and 4.39 for Burnley.
Cardiff City scored about 2.8 more than their chances were worth: clinical finishing, or a goalkeeper having a bad day.
Burnley created the better chances, 4.39 xG to 2.17, and still lost. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.
The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Cardiff City to create more, and Burnley did.
Cardiff City had 11 shots on target, Burnley 8.
Cardiff City's goalkeeper made 5 saves.
Cardiff City had 67% of the ball and turned it into the win.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Cardiff City came into it with 15 Championship matches played, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.8 a match, with 2.13 expected goals for and 1.61 against, and had won 27% of their matches.
Burnley came into it with 15 Championship matches played, scoring 1.5 and conceding 2.1 a match, with 1.41 expected goals for and 1.80 against, and had won 7% of their matches.
Cardiff City vs Burnley: the match in numbers
| Cardiff City | Match statistics | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| 67% | Ball possession | 33% |
| 2.17 | Expected goals (xG) | 4.39 |
| 25 | Total shots | 15 |
| 11 | Shots on target | 8 |
| 8 | Big chances | 2 |
| 577 | Total passes | 286 |
| 88% | Pass accuracy | 77% |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Offsides | 1 |
| 8 | Tackles | 15 |
| 5 | Saves | 4 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Yousef Salech (Cardiff City), rated 8.7 by Sportmonks, with 2 goals.
Cardiff City
- Yousef Salech 8.7 2 goals
- Rubin Colwill 8.3 2 assists
- Alex Robertson 7.9 1 goal
- Cian Ashford 7.3 1 assist
- Ollie Tanner 7.2 1 goal
Burnley
- Largie Ramazani 7.7 1 goal
- Marcus Edwards 7.5 1 goal
- Lucas Pires 7.4 1 assist
- Andréas Hountondji 7.2 1 goal
- Aaron Ramsey 6.8
The lowest-rated starter was Igor Julio at 5.9. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Cardiff City: Norwich City vs Cardiff City Saturday 21 November 2026 · Championship
- Burnley: Burnley vs Blackburn Rovers Sunday 22 November 2026 · Championship
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Cardiff City vs Burnley
What was the score in Cardiff City vs Burnley?
Cardiff City 5-4 Burnley (half-time 1-2), Championship, Saturday 7 November 2026.
Who scored in Cardiff City vs Burnley?
Andréas Hountondji 15', Marcus Edwards 25', Ollie Tanner 40', Largie Ramazani 55', Yousef Salech 65', Jack Moylan 75', Yousef Salech 82', Alex Robertson 90+4'.
Did Moneyball predict Cardiff City vs Burnley correctly?
Moneyball's Match Board pick, Cardiff City -0.50, was right: 5-4 bears it out.
Who was man of the match in Cardiff City vs Burnley?
Yousef Salech, rated 8.7 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Cardiff City vs Burnley?
O. Langford.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.