Botafogo 1-0 Atlético Mineiro: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

How Botafogo won it

Botafogo struck first through Edenilson in the 19th minute, set up by Vitinho.

It was 1-0 at half-time, and nothing changed after the break.

The referee, Lucas Casagrande, showed 4 yellow cards: 2 to Botafogo and 2 to Atlético Mineiro.

Botafogo: A. Bacchi, 3-5-2 · Atlético Mineiro: E. Domínguez, 4-2-3-1.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

Moneyball's Match Board pick, Botafogo -0.50, was right: 1-0 bears it out.

The estimate's most likely result was a Botafogo win at 49%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-1 (12%).

The goals dried up: the estimate expected about 2.9 and the match produced one.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 54%; with 1 goal the under came in, against the way the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 57%; they did not both score, against the estimate.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-11-04, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 0.50 for Botafogo and 1.45 for Atlético Mineiro.

Atlético Mineiro left about 1.4 goals' worth of chances on the pitch.

Atlético Mineiro created the better chances, 1.45 xG to 0.50, and still lost. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.

The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Botafogo to create more, and Atlético Mineiro did.

Botafogo had 3 shots on target, Atlético Mineiro 3.

Atlético Mineiro had 68% of the ball, but Botafogo took the points.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Botafogo came into it with 34 Brasileirão matches played, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.6 a match, with 1.25 expected goals for and 1.22 against, and had won 32% of their matches.

Atlético Mineiro came into it with 34 Brasileirão matches played, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.2 a match, with 1.34 expected goals for and 1.35 against, and had won 41% of their matches.

Botafogo vs Atlético Mineiro: the match in numbers

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Alexsander (Atlético Mineiro), rated 7.4 by Sportmonks.

Botafogo

• Nahuel Ferraresi 7.4
• Gabriel Batista 7.4
• Vitinho 7.2 1 assist
• Matheus Martins 6.9
• Edenilson 6.9 1 goal

Atlético Mineiro

• Alexsander 7.4
• Tomás Pérez 7.3
• Gustavo Scarpa 7.3
• Dudu 7.3
• Vitão 7.3

The lowest-rated starter was Angelo Preciado at 6.3. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

• Botafogo: Corinthians vs Botafogo Thursday 19 November 2026 · Brasileirão
• Atlético Mineiro: Mirassol vs Atlético Mineiro Saturday 14 November 2026 · Brasileirão

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Botafogo vs Atlético Mineiro

What was the score in Botafogo vs Atlético Mineiro?

Botafogo 1-0 Atlético Mineiro (half-time 1-0), Brasileirão, Thursday 5 November 2026.

Who scored in Botafogo vs Atlético Mineiro?

Edenilson 19'.

Did Moneyball predict Botafogo vs Atlético Mineiro correctly?

Moneyball's Match Board pick, Botafogo -0.50, was right: 1-0 bears it out.

Who was man of the match in Botafogo vs Atlético Mineiro?

Alexsander, rated 7.4 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Botafogo vs Atlético Mineiro?

Lucas Casagrande.