MoneyballDixon-Coles · xG fusion
Back to Moneyball

Benfica 3-1 Lech Poznań: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

Full time: Benfica 3-1 Lech Poznań

Benfica beat Lech Poznań 3-1 in Europa League Matchday 4 on Thursday 5 November 2026 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica. The goals: Rafa Silva 6', Gianluca Prestianni 67', Leo Bengtsson 72', Georgiy Sudakov 90'. Moneyball's pre-match estimate had the result right.

How Benfica won it

The opening goal came in the 6th minute: Rafa Silva for Benfica. Gianluca Prestianni made it 2-0 to Benfica in the 67th minute, set up by Georgiy Sudakov. Leo Bengtsson made it 2-1 to Lech Poznań in the 72nd minute. Georgiy Sudakov made it 3-1 to Benfica in the 90th minute, set up by Enzo Barrenechea.

It was 1-0 at half-time.

The referee, M. Matoša, showed 3 yellow cards: 2 to Benfica and 1 to Lech Poznań.

Benfica: M. Saraiva Da Silva, 4-2-3-1 · Lech Poznań: N. Frederiksen, 4-2-3-1.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

The prediction was right. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Over 3.50, and on 3-1 it was right.

The estimate's most likely result was a Benfica win at 79%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 2-0 (10%).

On goals the estimate was close: about 3.8 expected, 4 scored.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 72%; with 4 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 55%; both did, in line with the estimate.

The pre-match consensus had a Benfica win at 79%, the same lean as Moneyball.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-11-05, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

Benfica had 12 shots on target, Lech Poznań 5.

Lech Poznań's goalkeeper made 9 saves.

Benfica had 57% of the ball and turned it into the win.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Benfica came into it with 4 Europa League matches played, scoring 3.3 and conceding 0.8 a match, with 2.21 expected goals for and – against, and had won 100% of their matches.

Lech Poznań came into it with 4 Europa League matches played, scoring 0.5 and conceding 3.0 a match, with 1.03 expected goals for and – against, and had won 0% of their matches.

Benfica vs Lech Poznań: the match in numbers

BenficaMatch statisticsLech Poznań
57%Ball possession43%
24Total shots6
12Shots on target5
5Big chances1
518Total passes398
88%Pass accuracy80%
6Corners3
15Fouls11
1Offsides3
10Tackles11
4Saves9
2Yellow cards1

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Georgiy Sudakov (Benfica), rated 8.5 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal, 1 assist.

Benfica

Lech Poznań

The lowest-rated starter was Michał Gurgul at 6.1. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Benfica vs Lech Poznań

What was the score in Benfica vs Lech Poznań?

Benfica 3-1 Lech Poznań (half-time 1-0), Europa League, Thursday 5 November 2026.

Who scored in Benfica vs Lech Poznań?

Rafa Silva 6', Gianluca Prestianni 67', Leo Bengtsson 72', Georgiy Sudakov 90'.

Did Moneyball predict Benfica vs Lech Poznań correctly?

The prediction was right. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Over 3.50, and on 3-1 it was right.

Who was man of the match in Benfica vs Lech Poznań?

Georgiy Sudakov, rated 8.5 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Benfica vs Lech Poznań?

M. Matoša.

Every match, before and after

Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.

Open Moneyball Match Live All match reports

Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.