FC Bayern München 6-1 RB Leipzig: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Bundesliga Matchday 6 · Saturday 17 October 2026 · Allianz Arena, Munich · referee T. Stieler · full time
Full time: FC Bayern München 6-1 RB Leipzig
FC Bayern München beat RB Leipzig 6-1 in Bundesliga Matchday 6 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Allianz Arena. The goals: Luis Díaz 12', Aleksandar Pavlovic 26', Michael Olise 34', Luis Díaz 47', Harry Kane 53', Luis Díaz 69', Andrija Maksimovic 90+1'. Moneyball's pre-match estimate had the result right.
How FC Bayern München won it
FC Bayern München struck first through Luis Díaz in the 12th minute, set up by Joshua Kimmich. Aleksandar Pavlovic made it 2-0 to FC Bayern München in the 26th minute, set up by Luis Díaz. Michael Olise made it 3-0 to FC Bayern München in the 34th minute, set up by Harry Kane. Luis Díaz made it 4-0 to FC Bayern München in the 47th minute, set up by Harry Kane. Harry Kane made it 5-0 to FC Bayern München in the 53rd minute, set up by Nathaniel Brown. Luis Díaz made it 6-0 to FC Bayern München in the 69th minute, set up by Michael Olise. Andrija Maksimovic made it 6-1 to RB Leipzig in the 90th minute (+1), set up by Brajan Gruda.
It was 3-0 at half-time.
Luis Díaz scored a hat-trick.
The referee, T. Stieler, showed 1 yellow card: 1 to FC Bayern München and 0 to RB Leipzig.
FC Bayern München: V. Kompany, 4-2-3-1 · RB Leipzig: M. Demichelis, 4-5-1.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
A correct call: the Match Board's pick was Over 4.50, and 6-1 bears it out.
The estimate's most likely result was a FC Bayern München win at 78%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 3-1 (8%).
The match had far more goals than expected: the estimate was about 4.7 goals and there were 7.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 80%; with 7 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 69%; both did, in line with the estimate.
The pre-match consensus had a FC Bayern München win at 75%, the same lean as Moneyball.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-09, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 0.90 for FC Bayern München and 4.13 for RB Leipzig.
FC Bayern München scored about 5.1 more than their chances were worth: clinical finishing, or a goalkeeper having a bad day.
RB Leipzig left about 3.1 goals' worth of chances on the pitch.
RB Leipzig created the better chances, 4.13 xG to 0.90, and still lost. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.
The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected FC Bayern München to create more, and RB Leipzig did.
FC Bayern München had 17 shots on target, RB Leipzig 4.
RB Leipzig's goalkeeper made 11 saves.
FC Bayern München had 62% of the ball and turned it into the win.
Where the two sides stood before this match
FC Bayern München came into it with 9 Bundesliga matches played, scoring 3.2 and conceding 1.0 a match, with 3.03 expected goals for and 0.88 against, and had won 67% of their matches.
RB Leipzig came into it with 9 Bundesliga matches played, scoring 3.0 and conceding 1.4 a match, with 2.37 expected goals for and 1.37 against, and had won 67% of their matches.
FC Bayern München vs RB Leipzig: the match in numbers
| FC Bayern München | Match statistics | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| 62% | Ball possession | 38% |
| 0.90 | Expected goals (xG) | 4.13 |
| 29 | Total shots | 12 |
| 17 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 8 | Big chances | 0 |
| 666 | Total passes | 414 |
| 90% | Pass accuracy | 81% |
| 11 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 6 |
| 4 | Offsides | 2 |
| 14 | Tackles | 19 |
| 3 | Saves | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Luis Díaz (FC Bayern München), rated 9.8 by Sportmonks, with 3 goals, 1 assist.
FC Bayern München
- Luis Díaz 9.8 3 goals, 1 assist
- Harry Kane 9.3 1 goal, 2 assists
- Michael Olise 8.3 1 goal, 1 assist
- Joshua Kimmich 8.3 1 assist
- Aleksandar Pavlovic 7.8 1 goal
RB Leipzig
- Maarten Vandevoordt 8.1
- Andrija Maksimovic 7.4 1 goal
- Brajan Gruda 7.2 1 assist
- Neil El Aynaoui 6.8
- Rômulo 6.7
The lowest-rated starter was Lukas Klostermann at 5.5. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- FC Bayern München: FC Bayern München vs FC Köln Friday 20 November 2026 · Bundesliga
- RB Leipzig: FC Union Berlin vs RB Leipzig Saturday 21 November 2026 · Bundesliga
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about FC Bayern München vs RB Leipzig
What was the score in FC Bayern München vs RB Leipzig?
FC Bayern München 6-1 RB Leipzig (half-time 3-0), Bundesliga, Saturday 17 October 2026.
Who scored in FC Bayern München vs RB Leipzig?
Luis Díaz 12', Aleksandar Pavlovic 26', Michael Olise 34', Luis Díaz 47', Harry Kane 53', Luis Díaz 69', Andrija Maksimovic 90+1'.
Did Moneyball predict FC Bayern München vs RB Leipzig correctly?
A correct call: the Match Board's pick was Over 4.50, and 6-1 bears it out.
Who was man of the match in FC Bayern München vs RB Leipzig?
Luis Díaz, rated 9.8 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed FC Bayern München vs RB Leipzig?
T. Stieler.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.