FC Augsburg 2-2 FC Bayern München: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Bundesliga Matchday 5 · Saturday 10 October 2026 · WWK Arena, Augsburg · referee Sven Jablonski · full time
Full time: FC Augsburg 2-2 FC Bayern München
FC Augsburg and FC Bayern München drew 2-2 in Bundesliga Matchday 5 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at WWK Arena. The goals: Robin Fellhauer 1', Ismael Saibari 55', Rodrigo Ribeiro 64', Nathaniel Brown 80'. It went against Moneyball's pre-match estimate.
How the match unfolded
The opening goal came in the 1st minute: Robin Fellhauer for FC Augsburg. FC Bayern München levelled at 1-1 in the 55th minute through Ismael Saibari, set up by Harry Kane. Rodrigo Ribeiro made it 2-1 to FC Augsburg in the 64th minute, set up by Calvin Brackelmann. FC Bayern München levelled at 2-2 in the 80th minute through Nathaniel Brown, set up by Harry Kane.
It was 1-0 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.
The referee, Sven Jablonski, showed 3 yellow cards: 3 to FC Augsburg and 0 to FC Bayern München.
FC Augsburg: M. Baum, 3-4-2-1 · FC Bayern München: V. Kompany, 4-2-3-1.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
The prediction missed. Before kick-off Moneyball leaned to a FC Bayern München win at 53% and gave a draw 21%; the match went the other way. At 21%, it was a result the numbers saw about one time in 5.
On goals the estimate was close: about 3.7 expected, 4 scored.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 72%; with 4 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 70%; both did, in line with the estimate.
The pre-match consensus had a FC Bayern München win at 74%, the same lean as Moneyball.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-09, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 5.09 for FC Augsburg and 1.40 for FC Bayern München.
FC Augsburg scored about 3.1 fewer than their chances were worth: poor finishing, or a goalkeeper at his best.
FC Augsburg created the better chances, 5.09 xG to 1.40, and still did not win. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.
The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected FC Bayern München to create more, and FC Augsburg did.
FC Augsburg had 5 shots on target, FC Bayern München 10.
FC Augsburg's goalkeeper made 8 saves.
FC Bayern München had 70% of the ball.
Where the two sides stood before this match
FC Augsburg came into it with 9 Bundesliga matches played, scoring 2.2 and conceding 2.2 a match, with 2.01 expected goals for and 2.70 against, and had won 22% of their matches.
FC Bayern München came into it with 9 Bundesliga matches played, scoring 3.2 and conceding 1.0 a match, with 3.03 expected goals for and 0.88 against, and had won 67% of their matches.
FC Augsburg vs FC Bayern München: the match in numbers
| FC Augsburg | Match statistics | FC Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| 30% | Ball possession | 70% |
| 5.09 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.40 |
| 12 | Total shots | 30 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 10 |
| 3 | Big chances | 7 |
| 286 | Total passes | 649 |
| 76% | Pass accuracy | 90% |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 10 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Offsides | 4 |
| 24 | Tackles | 13 |
| 8 | Saves | 3 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Finn Dahmen (FC Augsburg), rated 8.0 by Sportmonks.
FC Augsburg
- Finn Dahmen 8.0
- Chrislain Matsima 7.6
- Calvin Brackelmann 7.2 1 assist
- Robin Fellhauer 7.1 1 goal
- Hennes Behrens 7.0
FC Bayern München
- Joshua Kimmich 7.7
- Michael Olise 7.6
- Aleksandar Pavlovic 7.4
- Nathaniel Brown 7.3 1 goal
- Ismael Saibari 7.3 1 goal
The lowest-rated starter was Manuel Neuer at 6.1. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- FC Augsburg: FC Augsburg vs FSV Mainz 05 Sunday 22 November 2026 · Bundesliga
- FC Bayern München: FC Bayern München vs FC Köln Friday 20 November 2026 · Bundesliga
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about FC Augsburg vs FC Bayern München
What was the score in FC Augsburg vs FC Bayern München?
FC Augsburg 2-2 FC Bayern München (half-time 1-0), Bundesliga, Saturday 10 October 2026.
Who scored in FC Augsburg vs FC Bayern München?
Robin Fellhauer 1', Ismael Saibari 55', Rodrigo Ribeiro 64', Nathaniel Brown 80'.
Did Moneyball predict FC Augsburg vs FC Bayern München correctly?
The prediction missed. Before kick-off Moneyball leaned to a FC Bayern München win at 53% and gave a draw 21%; the match went the other way. At 21%, it was a result the numbers saw about one time in 5.
Who was man of the match in FC Augsburg vs FC Bayern München?
Finn Dahmen, rated 8.0 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed FC Augsburg vs FC Bayern München?
Sven Jablonski.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.