MoneyballDixon-Coles · xG fusion
Back to Moneyball

Atlético de Madrid 1-0 Deportivo A Coruña: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

Full time: Atlético de Madrid 1-0 Deportivo A Coruña

Atlético de Madrid beat Deportivo A Coruña 1-0 in La Liga Matchday 10 on Saturday 24 October 2026 at Riyadh Air Metropolitano. The goals: Julián Alvarez 48'. Moneyball's pre-match estimate had the result right.

How Atlético de Madrid won it

Julián Alvarez put Atlético de Madrid ahead in the 48th minute, set up by Alejandro Grimaldo.

It was 0-0 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.

The referee, J. Sánchez Martínez, showed 7 yellow cards: 4 to Atlético de Madrid and 3 to Deportivo A Coruña.

Atlético de Madrid: D. Simeone, 4-3-3 · Deportivo A Coruña: A. Hidalgo Morilla, 5-3-2.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

The prediction was right. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Under 3.00, and on 1-0 it was right.

The estimate's most likely result was an Atlético de Madrid win at 77%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 2-0 (12%).

The goals dried up: the estimate expected about 3.3 and the match produced one.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 63%; with 1 goal the under came in, against the way the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 48%; they did not both score, in line with the estimate.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-24, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 1.87 for Atlético de Madrid and 1.71 for Deportivo A Coruña.

Deportivo A Coruña left about 1.7 goals' worth of chances on the pitch.

Atlético de Madrid had 4 shots on target, Deportivo A Coruña 5.

Atlético de Madrid's goalkeeper made 5 saves.

Atlético de Madrid had 55% of the ball and turned it into the win.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Atlético de Madrid came into it with 12 La Liga matches played, scoring 1.9 and conceding 0.8 a match, with 1.60 expected goals for and 1.19 against, and had won 75% of their matches.

Deportivo A Coruña came into it with 12 La Liga matches played, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.2 a match, with 1.34 expected goals for and 1.19 against, and had won 25% of their matches.

Atlético de Madrid vs Deportivo A Coruña: the match in numbers

Atlético de MadridMatch statisticsDeportivo A Coruña
55%Ball possession45%
1.87Expected goals (xG)1.71
20Total shots15
4Shots on target5
3Big chances3
545Total passes434
88%Pass accuracy87%
3Corners4
11Fouls6
1Offsides0
16Tackles11
5Saves3
4Yellow cards3

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Julián Alvarez (Atlético de Madrid), rated 8.3 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal.

Atlético de Madrid

Deportivo A Coruña

The lowest-rated starter was David Mella at 6.3. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Atlético de Madrid vs Deportivo A Coruña

What was the score in Atlético de Madrid vs Deportivo A Coruña?

Atlético de Madrid 1-0 Deportivo A Coruña (half-time 0-0), La Liga, Saturday 24 October 2026.

Who scored in Atlético de Madrid vs Deportivo A Coruña?

Julián Alvarez 48'.

Did Moneyball predict Atlético de Madrid vs Deportivo A Coruña correctly?

The prediction was right. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Under 3.00, and on 1-0 it was right.

Who was man of the match in Atlético de Madrid vs Deportivo A Coruña?

Julián Alvarez, rated 8.3 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Atlético de Madrid vs Deportivo A Coruña?

J. Sánchez Martínez.

Every match, before and after

Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.

Open Moneyball Match Live All match reports

Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.