Atalanta 4-4 Frosinone: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Serie A Matchday 8 · Sunday 25 October 2026 · Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo · referee L. Marinelli · full time
Full time: Atalanta 4-4 Frosinone
Atalanta and Frosinone drew 4-4 in Serie A Matchday 8 on Sunday 25 October 2026 at Gewiss Stadium. The goals: Romano Schmid 1', Nikola Krstović 14', Romano Schmid 17', Éderson 33', Nikola Krstović 45', Giacomo Calò 48', Eljif Elmas 50', Aleksa Terzić 82'. Moneyball's pre-match estimate had the result right.
How the match unfolded
Romano Schmid put Frosinone ahead in the 1st minute. Atalanta levelled at 1-1 in the 14th minute through Nikola Krstović, set up by Charles De Ketelaere. Romano Schmid made it 1-2 to Frosinone in the 17th minute, set up by Farès Ghedjemis. Atalanta levelled at 2-2 in the 33rd minute through Éderson from the penalty spot. Atalanta turned it round: Nikola Krstović made it 3-2 in the 45th minute, set up by Davide Zappacosta. Frosinone levelled at 3-3 in the 48th minute through Giacomo Calò, set up by Farès Ghedjemis. Eljif Elmas made it 4-3 to Atalanta in the 50th minute, set up by Nikola Krstović. Frosinone levelled at 4-4 in the 82nd minute through Aleksa Terzić, set up by Farès Ghedjemis.
It was 3-2 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.
Romano Schmid scored twice.
Nikola Krstović scored twice.
The lead changed hands once.
The referee, L. Marinelli, showed 5 yellow cards: 1 to Atalanta and 4 to Frosinone.
Atalanta: M. Sarri, 4-2-3-1 · Frosinone: M. Alvini, 4-2-3-1.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
A correct call: the Match Board's pick was Over 3.00, and 4-4 bears it out.
The estimate's most likely result was an Atalanta win at 50%; a draw, at 21%, is what happened. Its single most likely score was 2-1 (9%).
The match had far more goals than expected: the estimate was about 3.8 goals and there were 8.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 72%; with 8 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 72%; both did, in line with the estimate.
The pre-match consensus had an Atalanta win at 49%, the same lean as Moneyball.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-25, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 1.65 for Atalanta and 4.42 for Frosinone.
Atalanta scored about 2.3 more than their chances were worth: clinical finishing, or a goalkeeper having a bad day.
Frosinone created the better chances, 4.42 xG to 1.65, and still did not win. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.
The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Atalanta to create more, and Frosinone did.
Atalanta had 9 shots on target, Frosinone 10.
Atalanta's goalkeeper made 6 saves.
Frosinone had 54% of the ball.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Atalanta came into it with 11 Serie A matches played, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.8 a match, with 1.60 expected goals for and 1.82 against, and had won 36% of their matches.
Frosinone came into it with 11 Serie A matches played, scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.4 a match, with 1.90 expected goals for and 2.11 against, and had won 55% of their matches.
Atalanta vs Frosinone: the match in numbers
| Atalanta | Match statistics | Frosinone |
|---|---|---|
| 46% | Ball possession | 54% |
| 1.65 | Expected goals (xG) | 4.42 |
| 22 | Total shots | 24 |
| 9 | Shots on target | 10 |
| 6 | Big chances | 3 |
| 322 | Total passes | 371 |
| 71% | Pass accuracy | 75% |
| 8 | Corners | 9 |
| 7 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Offsides | 2 |
| 22 | Tackles | 20 |
| 6 | Saves | 3 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Nikola Krstović (Atalanta), rated 9.4 by Sportmonks, with 2 goals, 1 assist.
Atalanta
- Nikola Krstović 9.4 2 goals, 1 assist
- Charles De Ketelaere 8.2 1 assist
- Eljif Elmas 7.9 1 goal
- Marco Carnesecchi 7.2
- Davide Zappacosta 6.9 1 assist
Frosinone
- Farès Ghedjemis 8.7 3 assists
- Romano Schmid 8.7 2 goals
- Aleksa Terzić 7.4 1 goal
- Giacomo Calò 7.2 1 goal
- Alessio Zerbin 6.8
The lowest-rated starter was Lorenzo Palmisani at 6.0. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Atalanta: Atalanta vs Inter Sunday 22 November 2026 · Serie A
- Frosinone: AC Milan vs Frosinone Sunday 22 November 2026 · Serie A
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Atalanta vs Frosinone
What was the score in Atalanta vs Frosinone?
Atalanta 4-4 Frosinone (half-time 3-2), Serie A, Sunday 25 October 2026.
Who scored in Atalanta vs Frosinone?
Romano Schmid 1', Nikola Krstović 14', Romano Schmid 17', Éderson 33', Nikola Krstović 45', Giacomo Calò 48', Eljif Elmas 50', Aleksa Terzić 82'.
Did Moneyball predict Atalanta vs Frosinone correctly?
A correct call: the Match Board's pick was Over 3.00, and 4-4 bears it out.
Who was man of the match in Atalanta vs Frosinone?
Nikola Krstović, rated 9.4 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Atalanta vs Frosinone?
L. Marinelli.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.