Aston Villa 2-1 Manchester City: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

How Aston Villa won it

Aston Villa struck first through Nicolas Jackson in the 6th minute, set up by John McGinn. Manchester City levelled at 1-1 in the 52nd minute through Erling Haaland, set up by Iliman Ndiaye. Nicolas Jackson made it 2-1 to Aston Villa in the 60th minute, set up by Ibrahim Mbaye.

It was 1-0 at half-time.

Nicolas Jackson scored twice.

The referee, P. Bankes, showed 8 yellow cards: 4 to Aston Villa and 4 to Manchester City.

Aston Villa: U. Emery Etxegoien, 4-2-3-1 · Manchester City: E. Maresca, 4-2-3-1.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

A correct call: the Match Board's pick was Aston Villa +0.75, and 2-1 bears it out.

The estimate's most likely result was a Manchester City win at 49%; an Aston Villa win, at 27%, is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-1 (11%).

On goals the estimate was close: about 3.1 expected, 3 scored.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 59%; with 3 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 61%; both did, in line with the estimate.

The pre-match consensus had a Manchester City win at 54%, the same lean as Moneyball.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-24, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 1.79 for Aston Villa and 0.66 for Manchester City.

The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Manchester City to create more, and Aston Villa did.

Aston Villa had 2 shots on target, Manchester City 7.

Aston Villa's goalkeeper made 6 saves.

Manchester City had 64% of the ball, but Aston Villa took the points.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Aston Villa came into it with 10 Premier League matches played, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.7 a match, with 1.37 expected goals for and 1.95 against, and had won 30% of their matches.

Manchester City came into it with 10 Premier League matches played, scoring 2.1 and conceding 1.3 a match, with 1.97 expected goals for and 1.09 against, and had won 70% of their matches.

Aston Villa vs Manchester City: the match in numbers

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Nicolas Jackson (Aston Villa), rated 8.6 by Sportmonks, with 2 goals.

Aston Villa

• Nicolas Jackson 8.6 2 goals
• Zion Suzuki 7.6
• John McGinn 7.6 1 assist
• Matty Cash 6.9
• Boubacar Kamara 6.9

Manchester City

• Abdukodir Khusanov 7.6
• Elliot Anderson 7.5
• Erling Haaland 7.5 1 goal
• Jérémy Doku 7.2
• Josko Gvardiol 7.2

The lowest-rated starter was Gianluigi Donnarumma at 5.6. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

• Aston Villa: Aston Villa vs Sunderland Saturday 21 November 2026 · Premier League
• Manchester City: Manchester City vs Fulham Saturday 21 November 2026 · Premier League

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Aston Villa vs Manchester City

What was the score in Aston Villa vs Manchester City?

Aston Villa 2-1 Manchester City (half-time 1-0), Premier League, Saturday 24 October 2026.

Who scored in Aston Villa vs Manchester City?

Nicolas Jackson 6', Erling Haaland 52', Nicolas Jackson 60'.

Did Moneyball predict Aston Villa vs Manchester City correctly?

A correct call: the Match Board's pick was Aston Villa +0.75, and 2-1 bears it out.

Who was man of the match in Aston Villa vs Manchester City?

Nicolas Jackson, rated 8.6 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Aston Villa vs Manchester City?

P. Bankes.