Aston Villa 2-2 Brentford: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

How the match unfolded

Brentford struck first through Yegor Yarmolyuk in the 10th minute. Aston Villa levelled at 1-1 in the 12th minute through Nicolas Jackson. Aston Villa turned it round: John McGinn made it 2-1 in the 77th minute, set up by Johan Manzambi. Brentford levelled at 2-2 in the 79th minute through Kristoffer Ajer, set up by Jaidon Anthony.

It was 1-1 at half-time.

The lead changed hands once.

The referee, C. Pawson, showed 8 yellow cards: 2 to Aston Villa and 6 to Brentford.

Aston Villa: U. Emery Etxegoien, 4-2-3-1 · Brentford: K. Andrews, 4-2-3-1.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

The prediction missed. Before kick-off Moneyball leaned to a Brentford win at 54% and gave a draw 24%; the match went the other way. At 24%, it was a result the numbers saw about one time in 4.

On goals the estimate was close: about 2.9 expected, 4 scored.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 55%; with 4 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 55%; both did, in line with the estimate.

The pre-match consensus had a Brentford win at 37%, the same lean as Moneyball.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-09, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 1.46 for Aston Villa and 1.96 for Brentford.

Aston Villa had 7 shots on target, Brentford 4.

Brentford's goalkeeper made 5 saves.

Aston Villa had 52% of the ball.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Aston Villa came into it with 10 Premier League matches played, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.7 a match, with 1.37 expected goals for and 1.95 against, and had won 30% of their matches.

Brentford came into it with 10 Premier League matches played, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.1 a match, with 1.58 expected goals for and 1.62 against, and had won 30% of their matches.

Aston Villa vs Brentford: the match in numbers

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Nicolas Jackson (Aston Villa), rated 7.5 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal.

Aston Villa

• Nicolas Jackson 7.5 1 goal
• Johan Manzambi 7.4 1 assist
• John McGinn 7.4 1 goal
• Boubacar Kamara 7.1
• Emiliano Buendía 6.8

Brentford

• Kristoffer Ajer 7.4 1 goal
• Caoimhín Kelleher 7.3
• Yegor Yarmolyuk 7.2 1 goal
• Jaidon Anthony 7.2 1 assist
• Kevin Schade 6.8

The lowest-rated starter was Tyrone Mings at 5.8. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

• Aston Villa: Aston Villa vs Sunderland Saturday 21 November 2026 · Premier League
• Brentford: Brentford vs Everton Monday 23 November 2026 · Premier League

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Aston Villa vs Brentford

What was the score in Aston Villa vs Brentford?

Aston Villa 2-2 Brentford (half-time 1-1), Premier League, Saturday 10 October 2026.

Who scored in Aston Villa vs Brentford?

Yegor Yarmolyuk 10', Nicolas Jackson 12', John McGinn 77', Kristoffer Ajer 79'.

Did Moneyball predict Aston Villa vs Brentford correctly?

The prediction missed. Before kick-off Moneyball leaned to a Brentford win at 54% and gave a draw 24%; the match went the other way. At 24%, it was a result the numbers saw about one time in 4.

Who was man of the match in Aston Villa vs Brentford?

Nicolas Jackson, rated 7.5 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Aston Villa vs Brentford?

C. Pawson.