Deportivo Alavés 1-2 Atlético de Madrid: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
La Liga Matchday 8 · Saturday 10 October 2026 · Estadio de Mendizorroza, Gasteiz · referee A. Quintero González · full time
Full time: Deportivo Alavés 1-2 Atlético de Madrid
Deportivo Alavés 1-2 Atlético de Madrid: Atlético de Madrid took the points in La Liga Matchday 8 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Estadio de Mendizorroza. The goals: Alejandro Grimaldo 33', Lucas Boyé 45+6', Cristian Romero 87'. Moneyball's pre-match estimate had the result right.
How Atlético de Madrid won it
The opening goal came in the 33rd minute: Alejandro Grimaldo for Atlético de Madrid, set up by Jonathan David. Deportivo Alavés levelled at 1-1 in the 45th minute (+6) through Lucas Boyé from the penalty spot. Cristian Romero made it 1-2 to Atlético de Madrid in the 87th minute, set up by Álex Baena.
It was 1-1 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.
Ángel Pérez of Deportivo Alavés was sent off in the 61st minute. The referee, A. Quintero González, showed 3 yellow cards: 0 to Deportivo Alavés and 3 to Atlético de Madrid.
Deportivo Alavés: E. Sánchez Flores, 3-5-2 · Atlético de Madrid: D. Simeone, 4-2-3-1.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
The prediction got the result right. Before kick-off Moneyball made an Atlético de Madrid win the most likely outcome at 38%, and that is what happened, though the most likely score was 1-1 rather than 1-2.
On goals the estimate was close: about 2.6 expected, 3 scored.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 47%; with 3 goals the over came in, against the way the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 53%; both did, in line with the estimate.
The pre-match consensus had an Atlético de Madrid win at 47%, the same lean as Moneyball.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-09, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 2.05 for Deportivo Alavés and 1.16 for Atlético de Madrid.
Deportivo Alavés scored about 1.0 fewer than their chances were worth: poor finishing, or a goalkeeper at his best.
Deportivo Alavés created the better chances, 2.05 xG to 1.16, and still lost. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.
The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Atlético de Madrid to create more, and Deportivo Alavés did.
Deportivo Alavés had 3 shots on target, Atlético de Madrid 7.
Deportivo Alavés's goalkeeper made 5 saves.
Atlético de Madrid had 68% of the ball and turned it into the win.
A red card changed the shape of the match, and no pre-match model can see one coming.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Deportivo Alavés came into it with 12 La Liga matches played, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.4 a match, with 1.15 expected goals for and 1.41 against, and had won 25% of their matches.
Atlético de Madrid came into it with 12 La Liga matches played, scoring 1.9 and conceding 0.8 a match, with 1.60 expected goals for and 1.19 against, and had won 75% of their matches.
Deportivo Alavés vs Atlético de Madrid: the match in numbers
| Deportivo Alavés | Match statistics | Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| 32% | Ball possession | 68% |
| 2.05 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.16 |
| 8 | Total shots | 22 |
| 3 | Shots on target | 7 |
| 1 | Big chances | 2 |
| 340 | Total passes | 706 |
| 81% | Pass accuracy | 91% |
| 0 | Corners | 10 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Offsides | 2 |
| 21 | Tackles | 19 |
| 5 | Saves | 2 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Alejandro Grimaldo (Atlético de Madrid), rated 8.4 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal.
Deportivo Alavés
- Antonio Sivera 7.3
- Toni Martínez 7.2
- Nahuel Tenaglia 7.2
- Pablo Ibáñez 7.0
- Denis Suárez 6.8
Atlético de Madrid
- Alejandro Grimaldo 8.4 1 goal
- Koke 8.2
- Marcos Llorente 7.8
- Cristian Romero 7.7 1 goal
- Álex Baena 7.4 1 assist
The lowest-rated starter was Ademola Lookman at 5.8. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Deportivo Alavés: Deportivo Alavés vs Deportivo A Coruña Saturday 21 November 2026 · La Liga
- Atlético de Madrid: Getafe vs Atlético de Madrid Sunday 22 November 2026 · La Liga
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Deportivo Alavés vs Atlético de Madrid
What was the score in Deportivo Alavés vs Atlético de Madrid?
Deportivo Alavés 1-2 Atlético de Madrid (half-time 1-1), La Liga, Saturday 10 October 2026.
Who scored in Deportivo Alavés vs Atlético de Madrid?
Alejandro Grimaldo 33', Lucas Boyé 45+6', Cristian Romero 87'.
Did Moneyball predict Deportivo Alavés vs Atlético de Madrid correctly?
The prediction got the result right. Before kick-off Moneyball made an Atlético de Madrid win the most likely outcome at 38%, and that is what happened, though the most likely score was 1-1 rather than 1-2.
Who was man of the match in Deportivo Alavés vs Atlético de Madrid?
Alejandro Grimaldo, rated 8.4 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Deportivo Alavés vs Atlético de Madrid?
A. Quintero González.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.