Al Shabab 6-1 Al Ahli: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Saudi Pro League Matchday 12 · Friday 30 October 2026 · Al-Shabab Club Stadium (Riyadh), Riyadh · referee M. Al Shamrani · full time
Full time: Al Shabab 6-1 Al Ahli
Al Shabab 6-1 Al Ahli: Al Shabab took the points in Saudi Pro League Matchday 12 on Friday 30 October 2026 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium (Riyadh). The goals: Ricardo Mathias 2', Yannick Carrasco 25', Roger Martínez 37', Firas Al-Buraikan 40', Ricardo Mathias 48', Yannick Carrasco 66', Yannick Carrasco 82'. It went against Moneyball's pre-match estimate.
How Al Shabab won it
Ricardo Mathias put Al Shabab ahead in the 2nd minute. Yannick Carrasco made it 2-0 to Al Shabab in the 25th minute. Roger Martínez from the penalty spot made it 3-0 to Al Shabab in the 37th minute. Firas Al-Buraikan made it 3-1 to Al Ahli in the 40th minute, set up by Matheus Gonçalves. Ricardo Mathias made it 4-1 to Al Shabab in the 48th minute, set up by Yacine Adli. Yannick Carrasco from the penalty spot made it 5-1 to Al Shabab in the 66th minute. Yannick Carrasco from the penalty spot made it 6-1 to Al Shabab in the 82nd minute.
It was 3-1 at half-time.
Ricardo Mathias scored twice.
Yannick Carrasco scored a hat-trick.
Abdulrahman Al-Sanbi of Al Ahli was sent off in the 22nd minute. The referee, M. Al Shamrani, showed 4 yellow cards: 3 to Al Shabab and 1 to Al Ahli.
Al Shabab: T. Letsch, 4-4-2 · Al Ahli: M. Pusic, 4-2-3-1.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
The prediction missed. Before kick-off Moneyball leaned to an Al Ahli win at 49% and gave an Al Shabab win 28%; the match went the other way.
The match had far more goals than expected: the estimate was about 3.5 goals and there were 7.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 68%; with 7 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 68%; both did, in line with the estimate.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-30, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 0.70 for Al Shabab and 3.63 for Al Ahli.
Al Shabab scored about 5.3 more than their chances were worth: clinical finishing, or a goalkeeper having a bad day.
Al Ahli left about 2.6 goals' worth of chances on the pitch.
Al Ahli created the better chances, 3.63 xG to 0.70, and still lost. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.
Al Shabab had 7 shots on target, Al Ahli 4.
Al Shabab had 62% of the ball and turned it into the win.
A red card changed the shape of the match, and no pre-match model can see one coming.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Al Shabab came into it with 11 Saudi Pro League matches played, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.4 a match, with 1.84 expected goals for and 1.49 against, and had won 27% of their matches.
Al Ahli came into it with 11 Saudi Pro League matches played, scoring 2.5 and conceding 1.7 a match, with 2.24 expected goals for and 1.47 against, and had won 64% of their matches.
Al Shabab vs Al Ahli: the match in numbers
| Al Shabab | Match statistics | Al Ahli |
|---|---|---|
| 62% | Ball possession | 38% |
| 0.70 | Expected goals (xG) | 3.63 |
| 17 | Total shots | 9 |
| 7 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 4 | Big chances | 2 |
| 419 | Total passes | 255 |
| 86% | Pass accuracy | 77% |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Offsides | 5 |
| 17 | Tackles | 11 |
| 3 | Saves | 1 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Ricardo Mathias (Al Shabab), rated 9.2 by Sportmonks, with 2 goals.
Al Shabab
- Ricardo Mathias 9.2 2 goals
- Yannick Carrasco 8.9 3 goals
- Roger Martínez 7.6 1 goal
- Yacine Adli 7.6 1 assist
- Mory Diaw 6.8
Al Ahli
- Firas Al-Buraikan 7.1 1 goal
- Matheus Gonçalves 6.8 1 assist
- Galeno 6.6
- Artem Bondarenko 6.5
- Roger Ibañez 6.4
The lowest-rated starter was Abdulrahman Al-Sanbi at 4.5. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Al Shabab: Abha vs Al Shabab Thursday 26 November 2026 · Saudi Pro League
- Al Ahli: Al Ahli vs Al Nassr Friday 20 November 2026 · Saudi Pro League
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Al Shabab vs Al Ahli
What was the score in Al Shabab vs Al Ahli?
Al Shabab 6-1 Al Ahli (half-time 3-1), Saudi Pro League, Friday 30 October 2026.
Who scored in Al Shabab vs Al Ahli?
Ricardo Mathias 2', Yannick Carrasco 25', Roger Martínez 37', Firas Al-Buraikan 40', Ricardo Mathias 48', Yannick Carrasco 66', Yannick Carrasco 82'.
Did Moneyball predict Al Shabab vs Al Ahli correctly?
The prediction missed. Before kick-off Moneyball leaned to an Al Ahli win at 49% and gave an Al Shabab win 28%; the match went the other way.
Who was man of the match in Al Shabab vs Al Ahli?
Ricardo Mathias, rated 9.2 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Al Shabab vs Al Ahli?
M. Al Shamrani.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.