Abha vs Al Shabab Prediction and Stats | Saudi Pro League Gameweek 13
Saudi Pro League · Thursday 26 November 2026 · 15:05 UTC · Dhamak Club Stadium, Khamis Mushait · updated 2026-11-13
Abha welcome Al Shabab to Dhamak Club Stadium in Khamis Mushait in Saudi Pro League Gameweek 13 action on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 15:05 UTC.
Abha have played 11 matches in Saudi Pro League this season, scoring 0.6 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 0% of them. At home they average 0.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 0% win rate. Al Shabab have played 11 matches in Saudi Pro League this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 27% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 4 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Al Shabab are narrow favourites at 50%, with the draw at 26% and Abha at 24%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Abha 1.04, Al Shabab 1.62.
- Over 2.5 goals: 50% · both teams to score: 53%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (11 and 11 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Abha: form and key numbers
In style Abha are happy without the ball, play long and direct, take players on.
- Expected goals: 0.96 a match created, 1.41 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.6).
- Shots: 9.4 a match, 3.2 on target.
- Possession: 45.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 9% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 55% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.63.
Al Shabab: form and key numbers
In style Al Shabab press high, play long and direct, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.84 a match created, 1.49 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.3).
- Shots: 14.6 a match, 5.4 on target.
- Possession: 51.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 27% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 64% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.9 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Abha vs Al Shabab: season averages side by side
| Abha | Per match this season | Al Shabab |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Matches | 11 |
| 0.6 | Goals scored | 1.8 |
| 1.7 | Goals conceded | 1.4 |
| 0.96 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.84 |
| 1.41 | xG conceded | 1.49 |
| 9.4 | Shots | 14.6 |
| 3.2 | On target | 5.4 |
| 45.8 | Possession % | 51.1 |
| 9% | Clean sheets % | 27% |
| 55% | Both teams scored % | 64% |
| 3.8 | Corners | 5.9 |
| 2.2 | Yellow cards | 2.1 |
| 6.63 | Average rating | 6.88 |
Players to watch
Abha
- Mohammed Al-Dawsari RB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 18 · Dribbler, Crosser (top 38% of his position)
- Safwan Al-Johani LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 15 · Crosser, Dribbler (top 31% of his position)
Al Shabab
- Mory Diaw GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 21 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 34% of his position)
- Josh Brownhill CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 19 · Secure passer, Creator (top 32% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Ricardo Mathias
Ricardo Mathias, 20 · Al Shabab · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 21
Ricardo Mathias, 20, plays as a centre-forward for Al Shabab in the Saudi Pro League. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and shots on target. Weakest in shots. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 21
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 18
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.25 xG/shot | 97% |
| Shots on target | 57% | 85% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.62 / 90 | 51% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.71 / 90 | 30% |
| Expected goals | 0.69 / 90 | 26% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★½ Target man Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots, Accurate shooter.
- What Ricardo Mathias is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Ricardo Mathias's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Abha vs Al Shabab prediction
Al Shabab should have more of the ball, with Abha likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.04 for Abha and 1.62 for Al Shabab - with over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams scoring at 53%. Al Shabab have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Abha 1-2 Al Shabab
Abha vs Al Shabab: what the numbers say
- 1. Al Shabab unbeaten (win or draw) 76% between them
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.66 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (50%)
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 6.3 cards a match between them
- 4. 9 or more corners 9.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Saudi Pro League previews
- Al Ahli vs Al Nassr Friday 20 November 2026
- Al Fateh vs Al Riyadh Thursday 26 November 2026
- Al Faisaly vs Al Diraiyah FC Thursday 26 November 2026
Abha vs Al Shabab: questions and answers
When is Abha vs Al Shabab?
Abha vs Al Shabab is on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 15:05 UTC, in Saudi Pro League Gameweek 13.
Where is Abha vs Al Shabab played?
At Dhamak Club Stadium, Khamis Mushait, Abha's home ground.
Who will win Abha vs Al Shabab?
Al Shabab are the favourites: Abha 24%, draw 26%, Al Shabab 50%. Our prediction is Abha 1-2 Al Shabab.
Who is the player to watch in Abha vs Al Shabab?
Ricardo Mathias of Al Shabab: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 21 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Abha vs Al Shabab?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.