Al Ahli vs Al Nassr Prediction and Stats | Saudi Pro League Gameweek 9
Saudi Pro League · Friday 20 November 2026 · 17:30 UTC · Alinma Stadium, Jeddah · updated 2026-11-13
Al Ahli welcome Al Nassr to Alinma Stadium in Jeddah in Saudi Pro League Gameweek 9 action on Friday 20 November 2026, kick-off 17:30 UTC.
Al Ahli have played 11 matches in Saudi Pro League this season, scoring 2.5 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 64% of them. At home they average 4.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 57% win rate. Al Nassr have played 11 matches in Saudi Pro League this season, scoring 2.5 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 82% of them. Away from home they average 2.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Al Nassr are narrow favourites at 43%, with the draw at 23% and Al Ahli at 34%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Al Ahli 1.69, Al Nassr 1.91.
- Over 2.5 goals: 70% · both teams to score: 70%.
- Most likely score: 1–3 (5%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (11 and 11 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Al Ahli: form and key numbers
In style Al Ahli press high, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.24 a match created, 1.47 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.4).
- Shots: 14.9 a match, 6.5 on target.
- Possession: 52.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 36% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 55% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.83.
Al Nassr: form and key numbers
In style Al Nassr keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.88 a match created, 0.85 conceded (goals minus xG: +7.3).
- Shots: 15.9 a match, 6.4 on target.
- Possession: 55.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 36% of matches (25% away).
- Both teams scored in 64% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.95.
Al Ahli vs Al Nassr: season averages side by side
| Al Ahli | Per match this season | Al Nassr |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Matches | 11 |
| 2.5 | Goals scored | 2.5 |
| 1.7 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 2.24 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.88 |
| 1.47 | xG conceded | 0.85 |
| 14.9 | Shots | 15.9 |
| 6.5 | On target | 6.4 |
| 52.1 | Possession % | 55.5 |
| 36% | Clean sheets % | 36% |
| 55% | Both teams scored % | 64% |
| 3.6 | Corners | 7.5 |
| 1.4 | Yellow cards | 1.4 |
| 6.83 | Average rating | 6.95 |
Players to watch
Al Ahli
- Ivan Toney CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 32 · Takes high-quality shots, Accurate shooter (top 1% of his position)
- Eduard Spertsyan AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 18 · Big-chance creator, Secure passer (top 19% of his position)
Al Nassr
- Cristiano Ronaldo CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 20 · Takes high-quality shots, Accurate shooter (top 27% of his position)
- Samú Costa DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 14 · Secure passer, Long passer (top 3% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: João Félix
João Félix, 27 · Al Nassr · SS · Link-up forward · Moneyball Score 34
João Félix, 27, plays as a second striker for Al Nassr in the Saudi Pro League. Strongest for his role in assists, luck taken out and expected assists (est.). Weakest in successful dribbles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every second striker in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average second striker, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- SS · Second striker Natural, 34
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 32
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 29
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Assists, luck taken out | 0.63 / 90 | 91% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.57 / 90 | 85% |
| Key passes | 3.46 / 90 | 79% |
| Fouls won | 1.99 / 90 | 50% |
| Expected goals | 0.47 / 90 | 44% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★½ Link-up forward Second striker
- ★★ Shadow striker Second striker
Scout's notes: Sets up goals from real chances, Creator.
- What João Félix is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open João Félix's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Al Ahli vs Al Nassr prediction
Al Nassr should have more of the ball; both work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals - 1.69 for Al Ahli and 1.91 for Al Nassr - with over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams scoring at 70%. Al Nassr have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Al Ahli 1-3 Al Nassr
Al Ahli vs Al Nassr: what the numbers say
- 1. Al Nassr unbeaten (win or draw) 66% between them
- 2. 3 or more goals 70% by the model, 3.60 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 70% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 5.8 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 11.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Saudi Pro League previews
- Al Fateh vs Al Riyadh Thursday 26 November 2026
- Abha vs Al Shabab Thursday 26 November 2026
- Al Faisaly vs Al Diraiyah FC Thursday 26 November 2026
Al Ahli vs Al Nassr: questions and answers
When is Al Ahli vs Al Nassr?
Al Ahli vs Al Nassr is on Friday 20 November 2026, kick-off 17:30 UTC, in Saudi Pro League Gameweek 9.
Where is Al Ahli vs Al Nassr played?
At Alinma Stadium, Jeddah, Al Ahli's home ground.
Who will win Al Ahli vs Al Nassr?
Al Nassr are the favourites: Al Ahli 34%, draw 23%, Al Nassr 43%. Our prediction is Al Ahli 1-3 Al Nassr.
Who is the player to watch in Al Ahli vs Al Nassr?
João Félix of Al Nassr: a link-up forward with a Moneyball Score of 34 against every second striker in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Al Ahli vs Al Nassr?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 70%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.