AC Milan 3-1 Inter: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

How AC Milan won it

The opening goal came in the 4th minute: Christian Pulisic for AC Milan, set up by Diego Moreira. Adrien Rabiot made it 2-0 to AC Milan in the 10th minute, set up by Diego Moreira. Alessandro Bastoni made it 2-1 to Inter in the 22nd minute, set up by Manuel Akanji. Diego Moreira made it 3-1 to AC Milan in the 43rd minute.

It was 3-1 at half-time, and nothing changed after the break.

The referee, M. Guida, showed 3 yellow cards: 2 to AC Milan and 1 to Inter.

AC Milan: R. Amorim, 3-4-2-1 · Inter: C. Chivu, 3-4-2-1.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

The prediction was right. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was AC Milan +0.25, and on 3-1 it was right.

The estimate's most likely result was an Inter win at 40%; an AC Milan win, at 34%, is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-1 (12%).

On goals the estimate was close: about 2.8 expected, 4 scored.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 54%; with 4 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 58%; both did, in line with the estimate.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-31, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 1.61 for AC Milan and 0.51 for Inter.

AC Milan scored about 1.4 more than their chances were worth: clinical finishing, or a goalkeeper having a bad day.

The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Inter to create more, and AC Milan did.

AC Milan had 4 shots on target, Inter 8.

AC Milan's goalkeeper made 7 saves.

Inter had 57% of the ball, but AC Milan took the points.

Where the two sides stood before this match

AC Milan came into it with 11 Serie A matches played, scoring 2.1 and conceding 1.2 a match, with 1.55 expected goals for and 1.12 against, and had won 64% of their matches.

Inter came into it with 11 Serie A matches played, scoring 2.5 and conceding 1.2 a match, with 2.62 expected goals for and 0.92 against, and had won 82% of their matches.

AC Milan vs Inter: the match in numbers

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Diego Moreira (AC Milan), rated 8.4 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal, 2 assists.

AC Milan

• Diego Moreira 8.4 1 goal, 2 assists
• Mike Maignan 8.1
• Christian Pulisic 7.7 1 goal
• Adrien Rabiot 7.1 1 goal
• Luka Modrić 7.1

Inter

• Hakan Çalhanoğlu 7.3
• Andy Diouf 7.3
• Manuel Akanji 7.3 1 assist
• Petar Sučić 7.1
• Carlos Augusto 7.1

The lowest-rated starter was Yann Bisseck at 6.0. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

• AC Milan: AC Milan vs Frosinone Sunday 22 November 2026 · Serie A
• Inter: Atalanta vs Inter Sunday 22 November 2026 · Serie A

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about AC Milan vs Inter

What was the score in AC Milan vs Inter?

AC Milan 3-1 Inter (half-time 3-1), Serie A, Saturday 31 October 2026.

Who scored in AC Milan vs Inter?

Christian Pulisic 4', Adrien Rabiot 10', Alessandro Bastoni 22', Diego Moreira 43'.

Did Moneyball predict AC Milan vs Inter correctly?

The prediction was right. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was AC Milan +0.25, and on 3-1 it was right.

Who was man of the match in AC Milan vs Inter?

Diego Moreira, rated 8.4 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed AC Milan vs Inter?

M. Guida.