AC Milan 3-2 Atalanta: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

How AC Milan won it

The opening goal came in the 24th minute: Gonçalo Ramos from the penalty spot for AC Milan. Adrien Rabiot made it 2-0 to AC Milan in the 43rd minute, set up by Diego Moreira. Mario Gila made it 3-0 to AC Milan in the 57th minute, set up by Adrien Rabiot. Gianluca Gaetano made it 3-1 to Atalanta in the 66th minute, set up by Nicola Zalewski. Nikola Krstović made it 3-2 to Atalanta in the 81st minute, set up by Raoul Bellanova.

It was 2-0 at half-time.

The referee, D. Chiffi, showed 3 yellow cards: 1 to AC Milan and 2 to Atalanta. Gonçalo Ramos missed a penalty for AC Milan in the 57 minute.

AC Milan: R. Amorim, 3-4-3 · Atalanta: M. Sarri, 4-3-3.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

A correct call: the Match Board's pick was Over 2.50, and 3-2 bears it out.

The estimate's most likely result was an AC Milan win at 49%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-1 (12%).

The match had far more goals than expected: the estimate was about 3.0 goals and there were 5.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 57%; with 5 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 59%; both did, in line with the estimate.

The pre-match consensus had an AC Milan win at 47%, the same lean as Moneyball.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-09, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 1.10 for AC Milan and 2.71 for Atalanta.

AC Milan scored about 1.9 more than their chances were worth: clinical finishing, or a goalkeeper having a bad day.

Atalanta created the better chances, 2.71 xG to 1.10, and still lost. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.

The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected AC Milan to create more, and Atalanta did.

AC Milan had 6 shots on target, Atalanta 4.

AC Milan had 56% of the ball and turned it into the win.

Where the two sides stood before this match

AC Milan came into it with 11 Serie A matches played, scoring 2.1 and conceding 1.2 a match, with 1.55 expected goals for and 1.12 against, and had won 64% of their matches.

Atalanta came into it with 11 Serie A matches played, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.8 a match, with 1.60 expected goals for and 1.82 against, and had won 36% of their matches.

AC Milan vs Atalanta: the match in numbers

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Adrien Rabiot (AC Milan), rated 8.9 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal, 1 assist.

AC Milan

• Adrien Rabiot 8.9 1 goal, 1 assist
• Mario Gila 7.3 1 goal
• Yunus Musah 7.0
• Luka Modrić 6.9
• Samuel Chukwueze 6.9

Atalanta

• Nikola Krstović 7.4 1 goal
• Gianluca Gaetano 7.3 1 goal
• Raoul Bellanova 7.1 1 assist
• Nicola Zalewski 7.0 1 assist
• Marco Carnesecchi 7.0

The lowest-rated starter was Thomas Kristensen at 5.9. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

• AC Milan: AC Milan vs Frosinone Sunday 22 November 2026 · Serie A
• Atalanta: Atalanta vs Inter Sunday 22 November 2026 · Serie A

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about AC Milan vs Atalanta

What was the score in AC Milan vs Atalanta?

AC Milan 3-2 Atalanta (half-time 2-0), Serie A, Sunday 18 October 2026.

Who scored in AC Milan vs Atalanta?

Gonçalo Ramos 24', Adrien Rabiot 43', Mario Gila 57', Gianluca Gaetano 66', Nikola Krstović 81'.

Did Moneyball predict AC Milan vs Atalanta correctly?

A correct call: the Match Board's pick was Over 2.50, and 3-2 bears it out.

Who was man of the match in AC Milan vs Atalanta?

Adrien Rabiot, rated 8.9 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed AC Milan vs Atalanta?

D. Chiffi.