Watford 1-0 Lincoln City: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Championship Matchday 14 · Tuesday 3 November 2026 · Vicarage Road, Watford · referee J. Bell · full time
Full time: Watford 1-0 Lincoln City
Watford won 1-0 at home to Lincoln City in Championship Matchday 14 on Tuesday 3 November 2026. The goals: Stephy Alvaro Mavididi 46'. It went against Moneyball's pre-match estimate.
How Watford won it
Watford struck first through Stephy Alvaro Mavididi in the 46th minute, set up by Myron Boadu.
It was 0-0 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.
The referee, J. Bell, showed 7 yellow cards: 5 to Watford and 2 to Lincoln City.
Watford: A. Dionisi, 4-2-3-1 · Lincoln City: T. Shaw, 3-4-2-1.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
This one went against the numbers. The estimate made a Lincoln City win the likeliest outcome (37%), and a Watford win, at 36%, is what happened.
The goals dried up: the estimate expected about 2.8 and the match produced one.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 53%; with 1 goal the under came in, against the way the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 58%; they did not both score, against the estimate.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-11-03, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 1.04 for Watford and 0.69 for Lincoln City.
Watford had 2 shots on target, Lincoln City 1.
Watford had 59% of the ball and turned it into the win.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Watford came into it with 15 Championship matches played, scoring 0.9 and conceding 1.5 a match, with 1.04 expected goals for and 1.81 against, and had won 27% of their matches.
Lincoln City came into it with 15 Championship matches played, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.7 a match, with 1.42 expected goals for and 1.62 against, and had won 27% of their matches.
Watford vs Lincoln City: the match in numbers
| Watford | Match statistics | Lincoln City |
|---|---|---|
| 59% | Ball possession | 41% |
| 1.04 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.69 |
| 18 | Total shots | 12 |
| 2 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 1 | Big chances | 1 |
| 443 | Total passes | 288 |
| 84% | Pass accuracy | 67% |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Offsides | 0 |
| 12 | Tackles | 23 |
| 1 | Saves | 1 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Marc Bola (Watford), rated 7.7 by Sportmonks.
Watford
- Marc Bola 7.7
- Mattie Pollock 7.5
- Federico Ravaglia 7.4
- Hector Kyprianou 7.3
- Stephy Alvaro Mavididi 7.2 1 goal
Lincoln City
- Andrei Coubiș 7.4
- Ben House 7.3
- Callum Elder 7.0
- Freddie Draper 6.9
- Sonny Bradley 6.8
The lowest-rated starter was Othmane Maamma at 6.2. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Watford: Sheffield United vs Watford Saturday 21 November 2026 · Championship
- Lincoln City: Lincoln City vs Wrexham Saturday 21 November 2026 · Championship
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Watford vs Lincoln City
What was the score in Watford vs Lincoln City?
Watford 1-0 Lincoln City (half-time 0-0), Championship, Tuesday 3 November 2026.
Who scored in Watford vs Lincoln City?
Stephy Alvaro Mavididi 46'.
Did Moneyball predict Watford vs Lincoln City correctly?
This one went against the numbers. The estimate made a Lincoln City win the likeliest outcome (37%), and a Watford win, at 36%, is what happened.
Who was man of the match in Watford vs Lincoln City?
Marc Bola, rated 7.7 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Watford vs Lincoln City?
J. Bell.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.