Valencia 1-2 Villarreal: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

How Villarreal won it

Valencia struck first through Pepelu from the penalty spot in the 38th minute. Villarreal levelled at 1-1 in the 69th minute through Alex Freeman, set up by Sergi Cardona. Villarreal turned it round: Georges Mikautadze made it 1-2 in the 90th minute (+6), set up by Alberto Moleiro. It came late, and it settled the match.

It was 1-0 at half-time, and the second half turned the match the other way.

The lead changed hands once.

Pape Gueye of Villarreal was sent off in the 79th minute. Harvey Elliott of Valencia was sent off in the 89th minute for a second yellow card. The referee, A. Quintero González, showed 7 yellow cards: 4 to Valencia and 3 to Villarreal.

Valencia: J. Aguirre Onaindía, 4-4-2 · Villarreal: I. Pérez Soto, 4-4-2.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Under 2.75. On 1-2 it was half wrong.

The estimate's most likely result was a Villarreal win at 46%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-1 (12%).

On goals the estimate was close: about 2.8 expected, 3 scored.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 53%; with 3 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 57%; both did, in line with the estimate.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-24, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 1.46 for Valencia and 1.27 for Villarreal.

Valencia had 5 shots on target, Villarreal 3.

Villarreal had 61% of the ball and turned it into the win.

A red card changed the shape of the match, and no pre-match model can see one coming.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Valencia came into it with 12 La Liga matches played, scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.7 a match, with 0.97 expected goals for and 1.51 against, and had won 17% of their matches.

Villarreal came into it with 12 La Liga matches played, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.3 a match, with 1.96 expected goals for and 1.12 against, and had won 33% of their matches.

Valencia vs Villarreal: the match in numbers

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Sergi Cardona (Villarreal), rated 7.5 by Sportmonks, with 1 assist.

Valencia

• Pepelu 7.1 1 goal
• César Tárrega 6.9
• Luis Rioja 6.9
• José Gayà 6.8
• Javi Guerra 6.8

Villarreal

• Sergi Cardona 7.5 1 assist
• Alex Freeman 7.5 1 goal
• Péter Gulácsi 7.2
• Georges Mikautadze 7.2 1 goal
• Tajon Buchanan 7.2

The lowest-rated starter was Stole Dimitrievski at 6.2. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

• Valencia: Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia Saturday 21 November 2026 · La Liga
• Villarreal: FC Barcelona vs Villarreal Sunday 22 November 2026 · La Liga

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Valencia vs Villarreal

What was the score in Valencia vs Villarreal?

Valencia 1-2 Villarreal (half-time 1-0), La Liga, Saturday 24 October 2026.

Who scored in Valencia vs Villarreal?

Pepelu 38', Alex Freeman 69', Georges Mikautadze 90+6'.

Did Moneyball predict Valencia vs Villarreal correctly?

Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Under 2.75. On 1-2 it was half wrong.

Who was man of the match in Valencia vs Villarreal?

Sergi Cardona, rated 7.5 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Valencia vs Villarreal?

A. Quintero González.