TSG Hoffenheim 2-3 Hamburger SV: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Bundesliga Matchday 5 · Saturday 10 October 2026 · SNP Arena, Sinsheim · referee H. Osmers · full time
Full time: TSG Hoffenheim 2-3 Hamburger SV
TSG Hoffenheim 2-3 Hamburger SV: Hamburger SV took the points in Bundesliga Matchday 5 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at SNP Arena. The goals: Yussuf Poulsen 12', Bambasé Conté 53', Terem Moffi 83', Miro Muheim 90+4'. It went against Moneyball's pre-match estimate.
How Hamburger SV won it
Hamburger SV struck first through Yussuf Poulsen in the 12th minute. TSG Hoffenheim levelled at 1-1 in the 45th minute (+6) through an own goal by Sebastiaan Bornauw. TSG Hoffenheim turned it round: Bambasé Conté made it 2-1 in the 53rd minute, set up by Fisnik Asllani. Hamburger SV levelled at 2-2 in the 83rd minute through Terem Moffi, set up by Miro Muheim. Hamburger SV turned it round: Miro Muheim made it 2-3 in the 90th minute (+4). It came late, and it settled the match.
It was 1-1 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.
The lead changed hands 2 times.
Bernardo of TSG Hoffenheim was sent off in the 65th minute for a second yellow card. The referee, H. Osmers, showed 2 yellow cards: 2 to TSG Hoffenheim and 0 to Hamburger SV.
TSG Hoffenheim: C. Ilzer, 4-2-3-1 · Hamburger SV: M. Polzin, 3-5-1-1.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
This one went against the numbers. The estimate made a TSG Hoffenheim win the likeliest outcome (63%), and a Hamburger SV win, at 18%, is what happened. At 18%, it was a result the numbers saw about one time in 6.
The match had far more goals than expected: the estimate was about 3.6 goals and there were 5.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 70%; with 5 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 65%; both did, in line with the estimate.
The pre-match consensus had a TSG Hoffenheim win at 67%, the same lean as Moneyball.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-09, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 1.41 for TSG Hoffenheim and 1.77 for Hamburger SV.
Hamburger SV made more of their chances than the xG suggests, by about 1.2 goals.
TSG Hoffenheim had 4 shots on target, Hamburger SV 4.
TSG Hoffenheim had 64% of the ball, but Hamburger SV took the points.
A red card changed the shape of the match, and no pre-match model can see one coming.
Where the two sides stood before this match
TSG Hoffenheim came into it with 9 Bundesliga matches played, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.9 a match, with 1.93 expected goals for and 1.52 against, and had won 44% of their matches.
Hamburger SV came into it with 9 Bundesliga matches played, scoring 1.1 and conceding 2.2 a match, with 1.06 expected goals for and 1.94 against, and had won 44% of their matches.
TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV: the match in numbers
| TSG Hoffenheim | Match statistics | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| 64% | Ball possession | 36% |
| 1.41 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.77 |
| 17 | Total shots | 15 |
| 4 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 3 | Big chances | 3 |
| 545 | Total passes | 306 |
| 81% | Pass accuracy | 69% |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Offsides | 1 |
| 13 | Tackles | 18 |
| 1 | Saves | 3 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Miro Muheim (Hamburger SV), rated 8.0 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal, 1 assist.
TSG Hoffenheim
- Bambasé Conté 7.7 1 goal
- Adam Daghim 7.2
- Wouter Burger 7.2
- Vladimír Coufal 7.1
- Fisnik Asllani 6.8 1 assist
Hamburger SV
- Miro Muheim 8.0 1 goal, 1 assist
- Nicolás Capaldo 7.4
- Terem Moffi 7.3 1 goal
- Yussuf Poulsen 7.3 1 goal
- Fábio Vieira 6.9
The lowest-rated starter was Bernardo at 6.0. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- TSG Hoffenheim: Eintracht Frankfurt vs TSG Hoffenheim Saturday 21 November 2026 · Bundesliga
- Hamburger SV: Werder Bremen vs Hamburger SV Sunday 22 November 2026 · Bundesliga
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV
What was the score in TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV?
TSG Hoffenheim 2-3 Hamburger SV (half-time 1-1), Bundesliga, Saturday 10 October 2026.
Who scored in TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV?
Yussuf Poulsen 12', Bambasé Conté 53', Terem Moffi 83', Miro Muheim 90+4'.
Did Moneyball predict TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV correctly?
This one went against the numbers. The estimate made a TSG Hoffenheim win the likeliest outcome (63%), and a Hamburger SV win, at 18%, is what happened. At 18%, it was a result the numbers saw about one time in 6.
Who was man of the match in TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV?
Miro Muheim, rated 8.0 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV?
H. Osmers.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.