TSG Hoffenheim 3-0 Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Bundesliga Matchday 7 · Sunday 25 October 2026 · SNP Arena, Sinsheim · referee D. Siebert · full time
Full time: TSG Hoffenheim 3-0 Bayer 04 Leverkusen
TSG Hoffenheim beat Bayer 04 Leverkusen 3-0 in Bundesliga Matchday 7 on Sunday 25 October 2026 at SNP Arena. The goals: Andrej Kramaric 79', Alexander Prass 89', Max Moerstedt 90+5'. It went against Moneyball's pre-match estimate.
How TSG Hoffenheim won it
TSG Hoffenheim struck first through Andrej Kramaric from the penalty spot in the 79th minute. Alexander Prass made it 2-0 to TSG Hoffenheim in the 89th minute, set up by Andrej Kramaric. Max Moerstedt made it 3-0 to TSG Hoffenheim in the 90th minute (+5).
It was 0-0 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.
Alexander Prass of TSG Hoffenheim was sent off in the 90th minute (+1) for a second yellow card. The referee, D. Siebert, showed 8 yellow cards: 3 to TSG Hoffenheim and 5 to Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
TSG Hoffenheim: C. Ilzer, 4-4-2 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen: C. Martínez Novell, 4-2-3-1.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Over 3.25. On 3-0 it was half wrong.
The estimate's most likely result was a TSG Hoffenheim win at 40%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-1 (8%).
On goals the estimate was close: about 3.9 expected, 3 scored.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 73%; with 3 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 74%; they did not both score, against the estimate.
The pre-match consensus had a Bayer 04 Leverkusen win at 40%, a different lean from Moneyball's.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-25, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 0.70 for TSG Hoffenheim and 3.29 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
TSG Hoffenheim scored about 2.3 more than their chances were worth: clinical finishing, or a goalkeeper having a bad day.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen left about 3.3 goals' worth of chances on the pitch.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen created the better chances, 3.29 xG to 0.70, and still lost. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.
The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected TSG Hoffenheim to create more, and Bayer 04 Leverkusen did.
TSG Hoffenheim had 6 shots on target, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen had 58% of the ball, but TSG Hoffenheim took the points.
A red card changed the shape of the match, and no pre-match model can see one coming.
Where the two sides stood before this match
TSG Hoffenheim came into it with 9 Bundesliga matches played, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.9 a match, with 1.93 expected goals for and 1.52 against, and had won 44% of their matches.
Bayer 04 Leverkusen came into it with 9 Bundesliga matches played, scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.9 a match, with 2.00 expected goals for and 1.61 against, and had won 56% of their matches.
TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen: the match in numbers
| TSG Hoffenheim | Match statistics | Bayer 04 Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| 42% | Ball possession | 58% |
| 0.70 | Expected goals (xG) | 3.29 |
| 20 | Total shots | 9 |
| 6 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 4 | Big chances | 1 |
| 359 | Total passes | 509 |
| 78% | Pass accuracy | 85% |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Offsides | 0 |
| 15 | Tackles | 15 |
| 1 | Saves | 3 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Andrej Kramaric (TSG Hoffenheim), rated 7.9 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal, 1 assist.
TSG Hoffenheim
- Andrej Kramaric 7.9 1 goal, 1 assist
- Vladimír Coufal 7.3
- Ozan Kabak 7.3
- Fisnik Asllani 7.3
- Max Moerstedt 7.2 1 goal
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Aleix García 6.9
- Facundo Medina 6.9
- Nathan Tella 6.8
- Malik Tillman 6.8
- Equi Fernández 6.8
The lowest-rated starter was Edmond Tapsoba at 6.1. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- TSG Hoffenheim: Eintracht Frankfurt vs TSG Hoffenheim Saturday 21 November 2026 · Bundesliga
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Paderborn Saturday 21 November 2026 · Bundesliga
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen
What was the score in TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
TSG Hoffenheim 3-0 Bayer 04 Leverkusen (half-time 0-0), Bundesliga, Sunday 25 October 2026.
Who scored in TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
Andrej Kramaric 79', Alexander Prass 89', Max Moerstedt 90+5'.
Did Moneyball predict TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen correctly?
Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Over 3.25. On 3-0 it was half wrong.
Who was man of the match in TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
Andrej Kramaric, rated 7.9 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
D. Siebert.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.