Troyes 1-3 Lens: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Ligue 1 Matchday 7 · Saturday 17 October 2026 · Complexe Sportif de l'Aube N° 2 - Terrain du Bas, Troyes · referee H. Ben El Hadj · full time
Full time: Troyes 1-3 Lens
Lens beat Troyes 3-1 in Ligue 1 Matchday 7 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Complexe Sportif de l'Aube N° 2 - Terrain du Bas. The goals: Timothé Nkada 26', Odsonne Édouard 45+2', Ruben Aguilar 55'. It went against Moneyball's pre-match estimate.
How Lens won it
The opening goal came in the 13th minute: an own goal by Adrien Monfray for Lens. Troyes levelled at 1-1 in the 26th minute through Timothé Nkada, set up by Mouhamed Diop. Odsonne Édouard made it 1-2 to Lens in the 45th minute (+2), set up by Florian Thauvin. Ruben Aguilar made it 1-3 to Lens in the 55th minute, set up by Florian Thauvin.
It was 1-2 at half-time.
The referee, H. Ben El Hadj, showed 4 yellow cards: 2 to Troyes and 2 to Lens.
Troyes: S. Dumont, 4-3-3 · Lens: Y. Cahuzac, 3-4-2-1.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was HT Troyes +0.50, and on the half-time score, 1-2 it was wrong.
The estimate's most likely result was a Lens win at 49%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-1 (11%).
On goals the estimate was close: about 3.2 expected, 4 scored.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 61%; with 4 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 63%; both did, in line with the estimate.
The pre-match consensus had a Lens win at 49%, the same lean as Moneyball.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-09, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 1.75 for Troyes and 1.04 for Lens.
Lens made more of their chances than the xG suggests, by about 2.0 goals.
The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Lens to create more, and Troyes did.
Troyes had 5 shots on target, Lens 3.
Lens had 59% of the ball and turned it into the win.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Troyes came into it with 10 Ligue 1 matches played, scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.7 a match, with 1.23 expected goals for and 1.46 against, and had won 20% of their matches.
Lens came into it with 10 Ligue 1 matches played, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.5 a match, with 1.59 expected goals for and 1.60 against, and had won 40% of their matches.
Troyes vs Lens: the match in numbers
| Troyes | Match statistics | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| 41% | Ball possession | 59% |
| 1.75 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.04 |
| 12 | Total shots | 13 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 3 | Big chances | 2 |
| 372 | Total passes | 540 |
| 82% | Pass accuracy | 84% |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Offsides | 1 |
| 13 | Tackles | 16 |
| 1 | Saves | 4 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Florian Thauvin (Lens), rated 8.5 by Sportmonks, with 2 assists.
Troyes
- Timothé Nkada 7.5 1 goal
- Karim Dermane 7.4
- Merwan Ifnaoui 6.9
- Junior Diaz 6.7
- Adrien Monfray 6.7
Lens
- Florian Thauvin 8.5 2 assists
- Ruben Aguilar 7.6 1 goal
- Andrija Bulatovic 7.3
- Odsonne Édouard 7.3 1 goal
- Robin Risser 7.1
The lowest-rated starter was Lucas Maronnier at 6.0. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Troyes: Troyes vs Le Havre Friday 20 November 2026 · Ligue 1
- Lens: Lens vs Toulouse Saturday 21 November 2026 · Ligue 1
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Troyes vs Lens
What was the score in Troyes vs Lens?
Troyes 1-3 Lens (half-time 1-2), Ligue 1, Saturday 17 October 2026.
Who scored in Troyes vs Lens?
Timothé Nkada 26', Odsonne Édouard 45+2', Ruben Aguilar 55'.
Did Moneyball predict Troyes vs Lens correctly?
The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was HT Troyes +0.50, and on the half-time score, 1-2 it was wrong.
Who was man of the match in Troyes vs Lens?
Florian Thauvin, rated 8.5 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Troyes vs Lens?
H. Ben El Hadj.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.