Toulouse 3-1 Strasbourg: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

How Toulouse won it

The opening goal came in the 45th minute (+1): Santiago Hidalgo for Toulouse, set up by Sion Oppong. Mark McKenzie made it 2-0 to Toulouse in the 56th minute, set up by Cristian Cásseres Jr.. Giovanni Reyna made it 2-1 to Strasbourg in the 67th minute. Thomas Jørgensen made it 3-1 to Toulouse in the 76th minute, set up by Rasmus Nicolaisen.

It was 1-0 at half-time.

The referee, M. Vernice, showed 6 yellow cards: 3 to Toulouse and 3 to Strasbourg.

Toulouse: J. Askou, 4-4-2 · Strasbourg: H. Carvalho Oliveira, 4-3-3.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

The prediction was right. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Toulouse -0.50, and on 3-1 it was right.

The estimate's most likely result was a Toulouse win at 46%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-1 (11%).

On goals the estimate was close: about 3.1 expected, 4 scored.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 60%; with 4 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 62%; both did, in line with the estimate.

The pre-match consensus had a Toulouse win at 44%, the same lean as Moneyball.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-11-05, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 0.79 for Toulouse and 1.22 for Strasbourg.

Toulouse scored about 2.2 more than their chances were worth: clinical finishing, or a goalkeeper having a bad day.

The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Toulouse to create more, and Strasbourg did.

Toulouse had 5 shots on target, Strasbourg 4.

Strasbourg had 52% of the ball, but Toulouse took the points.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Toulouse came into it with 10 Ligue 1 matches played, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.4 a match, with 1.66 expected goals for and 1.44 against, and had won 30% of their matches.

Strasbourg came into it with 10 Ligue 1 matches played, scoring 1.8 and conceding 2.2 a match, with 1.40 expected goals for and 1.76 against, and had won 30% of their matches.

Toulouse vs Strasbourg: the match in numbers

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Cristian Cásseres Jr. (Toulouse), rated 7.7 by Sportmonks, with 1 assist.

Toulouse

• Cristian Cásseres Jr. 7.7 1 assist
• Santiago Hidalgo 7.6 1 goal
• Casper Tengstedt 7.4
• Mark McKenzie 7.4 1 goal
• Sion Oppong 7.1 1 assist

Strasbourg

• Giovanni Reyna 7.5 1 goal
• Martial Godo 6.8
• Gessime Yassine 6.8
• Samuel Amo-Ameyaw 6.7
• Dário Essugo 6.7

The lowest-rated starter was Abdoul Karim Coulibaly at 6.1. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

• Toulouse: Lens vs Toulouse Saturday 21 November 2026 · Ligue 1
• Strasbourg: Strasbourg vs Brest Saturday 21 November 2026 · Ligue 1

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Toulouse vs Strasbourg

What was the score in Toulouse vs Strasbourg?

Toulouse 3-1 Strasbourg (half-time 1-0), Ligue 1, Friday 6 November 2026.

Who scored in Toulouse vs Strasbourg?

Santiago Hidalgo 45+1', Mark McKenzie 56', Giovanni Reyna 67', Thomas Jørgensen 76'.

Did Moneyball predict Toulouse vs Strasbourg correctly?

The prediction was right. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Toulouse -0.50, and on 3-1 it was right.

Who was man of the match in Toulouse vs Strasbourg?

Cristian Cásseres Jr., rated 7.7 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Toulouse vs Strasbourg?

M. Vernice.