Strasbourg 1-3 Paris Saint Germain: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Ligue 1 Matchday 7 · Saturday 17 October 2026 · Stade de la Meinau, Strasbourg · referee W. Delajod · full time
Full time: Strasbourg 1-3 Paris Saint Germain
Paris Saint Germain beat Strasbourg 3-1 in Ligue 1 Matchday 7 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Stade de la Meinau. The goals: Giovanni Reyna 17', Ilya Zabarnyi 77', Ousmane Dembélé 85', Désiré Doué 90+3'. It went against Moneyball's pre-match estimate.
How Paris Saint Germain won it
The opening goal came in the 17th minute: Giovanni Reyna for Strasbourg, set up by Gessime Yassine. Paris Saint Germain levelled at 1-1 in the 77th minute through Ilya Zabarnyi, set up by Ousmane Dembélé. Paris Saint Germain turned it round: Ousmane Dembélé made it 1-2 in the 85th minute. Désiré Doué made it 1-3 to Paris Saint Germain in the 90th minute (+3), set up by Ferran Torres.
It was 1-0 at half-time, and the second half turned the match the other way.
The lead changed hands once.
The referee, W. Delajod, showed 2 yellow cards: 2 to Strasbourg and 0 to Paris Saint Germain. Ousmane Dembélé missed a penalty for Paris Saint Germain in the 72 minute.
Strasbourg: H. Carvalho Oliveira, 4-2-3-1 · Paris Saint Germain: L. Martínez García, 4-3-3.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Strasbourg +1.50, and on 1-3 it was wrong.
The estimate's most likely result was a Paris Saint Germain win at 63%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-2 (9%).
On goals the estimate was close: about 3.7 expected, 4 scored.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 70%; with 4 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 66%; both did, in line with the estimate.
The pre-match consensus had a Paris Saint Germain win at 68%, the same lean as Moneyball.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-09, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 2.65 for Strasbourg and 1.88 for Paris Saint Germain.
Strasbourg scored about 1.6 fewer than their chances were worth: poor finishing, or a goalkeeper at his best.
Paris Saint Germain made more of their chances than the xG suggests, by about 1.1 goals.
The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Paris Saint Germain to create more, and Strasbourg did.
Strasbourg had 8 shots on target, Paris Saint Germain 7.
Paris Saint Germain's goalkeeper made 7 saves.
Paris Saint Germain had 73% of the ball and turned it into the win.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Strasbourg came into it with 10 Ligue 1 matches played, scoring 1.8 and conceding 2.2 a match, with 1.40 expected goals for and 1.76 against, and had won 30% of their matches.
Paris Saint Germain came into it with 10 Ligue 1 matches played, scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.0 a match, with 2.28 expected goals for and 1.15 against, and had won 70% of their matches.
Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain: the match in numbers
| Strasbourg | Match statistics | Paris Saint Germain |
|---|---|---|
| 27% | Ball possession | 73% |
| 2.65 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.88 |
| 17 | Total shots | 18 |
| 8 | Shots on target | 7 |
| 4 | Big chances | 7 |
| 246 | Total passes | 672 |
| 79% | Pass accuracy | 92% |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Offsides | 0 |
| 20 | Tackles | 13 |
| 4 | Saves | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Matvey Safonov (Paris Saint Germain), rated 8.2 by Sportmonks.
Strasbourg
- Giovanni Reyna 7.2 1 goal
- Conrad Harder 7.2
- Oso 7.1
- Pape Demba Diop 7.0
- Fábio Baldé 6.8
Paris Saint Germain
- Matvey Safonov 8.2
- Ilya Zabarnyi 8.1 1 goal
- Ousmane Dembélé 7.7 1 goal, 1 assist
- Désiré Doué 7.4 1 goal
- Dro Fernández 7.2
The lowest-rated starter was Genesis Antwi at 6.2. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Strasbourg: Strasbourg vs Brest Saturday 21 November 2026 · Ligue 1
- Paris Saint Germain: Nice vs Paris Saint Germain Saturday 21 November 2026 · Ligue 1
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain
What was the score in Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain?
Strasbourg 1-3 Paris Saint Germain (half-time 1-0), Ligue 1, Saturday 17 October 2026.
Who scored in Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain?
Giovanni Reyna 17', Ilya Zabarnyi 77', Ousmane Dembélé 85', Désiré Doué 90+3'.
Did Moneyball predict Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain correctly?
The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Strasbourg +1.50, and on 1-3 it was wrong.
Who was man of the match in Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain?
Matvey Safonov, rated 8.2 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain?
W. Delajod.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.