Sint-Truiden 4-1 Zulte-Waregem: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Belgian Pro League Matchday 11 · Sunday 8 November 2026 · Stayen Stadion, St.-Trond · referee A. Letellier · full time
Full time: Sint-Truiden 4-1 Zulte-Waregem
Sint-Truiden beat Zulte-Waregem 4-1 in Belgian Pro League Matchday 11 on Sunday 8 November 2026 at Stayen Stadion. The goals: Shion Shinkawa 7', Nelson Ishiwatari 12', István Zalán Átrok 14', Ilias Sebaoui 64', Kaito Matsuzawa 66'. Moneyball's pre-match estimate had the result right.
How Sint-Truiden won it
The opening goal came in the 7th minute: Shion Shinkawa for Sint-Truiden, set up by Robert-Jan Vanwesemael. Nelson Ishiwatari made it 2-0 to Sint-Truiden in the 12th minute, set up by Robert-Jan Vanwesemael. István Zalán Átrok made it 2-1 to Zulte-Waregem in the 14th minute. Ilias Sebaoui from the penalty spot made it 3-1 to Sint-Truiden in the 64th minute. Kaito Matsuzawa made it 4-1 to Sint-Truiden in the 66th minute, set up by Abdoulaye Sissako.
It was 2-1 at half-time.
Youssoupha Mbodji of Zulte-Waregem was sent off in the 74th minute. The referee, A. Letellier, showed 3 yellow cards: 0 to Sint-Truiden and 3 to Zulte-Waregem.
Sint-Truiden: F. De Meyer, 4-2-3-1 · Zulte-Waregem: M. Beale, 4-4-2.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
The prediction was right. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Over 2.75, and on 4-1 it was right.
The estimate's most likely result was a Sint-Truiden win at 54%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-1 (10%).
The match had far more goals than expected: the estimate was about 3.3 goals and there were 5.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 64%; with 5 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 64%; both did, in line with the estimate.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-11-08, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 1.19 for Sint-Truiden and 2.86 for Zulte-Waregem.
Sint-Truiden scored about 2.8 more than their chances were worth: clinical finishing, or a goalkeeper having a bad day.
Zulte-Waregem left about 1.9 goals' worth of chances on the pitch.
Zulte-Waregem created the better chances, 2.86 xG to 1.19, and still lost. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.
The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Sint-Truiden to create more, and Zulte-Waregem did.
Sint-Truiden had 7 shots on target, Zulte-Waregem 2.
Zulte-Waregem's goalkeeper made 5 saves.
Sint-Truiden had 68% of the ball and turned it into the win.
A red card changed the shape of the match, and no pre-match model can see one coming.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Sint-Truiden came into it with 11 Belgian Pro League matches played, scoring 2.0 and conceding 2.0 a match, with 2.21 expected goals for and 1.64 against, and had won 27% of their matches.
Zulte-Waregem came into it with 11 Belgian Pro League matches played, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.8 a match, with 1.24 expected goals for and 1.55 against, and had won 27% of their matches.
Sint-Truiden vs Zulte-Waregem: the match in numbers
| Sint-Truiden | Match statistics | Zulte-Waregem |
|---|---|---|
| 68% | Ball possession | 32% |
| 1.19 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.86 |
| 15 | Total shots | 7 |
| 7 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 6 | Big chances | 1 |
| 644 | Total passes | 298 |
| 88% | Pass accuracy | 76% |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Offsides | 2 |
| 12 | Tackles | 32 |
| 1 | Saves | 5 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Nelson Ishiwatari (Sint-Truiden), rated 7.8 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal.
Sint-Truiden
- Nelson Ishiwatari 7.8 1 goal
- Kaito Matsuzawa 7.3 1 goal
- Visar Musliu 7.2
- Ilias Sebaoui 7.2 1 goal
- Abdoulaye Sissako 7.2 1 assist
Zulte-Waregem
- Anosike Ementa 7.2
- Tobias Hedl 6.9
- Brent Gabriël 6.8
- István Zalán Átrok 6.8 1 goal
- Marley Aké 6.8
The lowest-rated starter was Jakob Kiilerich at 6.2. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Sint-Truiden: Sporting Charleroi vs Sint-Truiden Saturday 21 November 2026 · Belgian Pro League
- Zulte-Waregem: Zulte-Waregem vs Antwerp Saturday 21 November 2026 · Belgian Pro League
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Sint-Truiden vs Zulte-Waregem
What was the score in Sint-Truiden vs Zulte-Waregem?
Sint-Truiden 4-1 Zulte-Waregem (half-time 2-1), Belgian Pro League, Sunday 8 November 2026.
Who scored in Sint-Truiden vs Zulte-Waregem?
Shion Shinkawa 7', Nelson Ishiwatari 12', István Zalán Átrok 14', Ilias Sebaoui 64', Kaito Matsuzawa 66'.
Did Moneyball predict Sint-Truiden vs Zulte-Waregem correctly?
The prediction was right. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Over 2.75, and on 4-1 it was right.
Who was man of the match in Sint-Truiden vs Zulte-Waregem?
Nelson Ishiwatari, rated 7.8 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Sint-Truiden vs Zulte-Waregem?
A. Letellier.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.