Roma 4-2 Cagliari: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

How Roma won it

M'Bala Nzola put Cagliari ahead in the 10th minute from the penalty spot. Roma levelled at 1-1 in the 15th minute through Emanuele Lulli, set up by Nahuel Molina. Roma turned it round: Niccolò Pisilli made it 2-1 in the 21st minute, set up by Emanuele Lulli. Cagliari levelled at 2-2 in the 81st minute through Daniel Maldini, set up by Adam Obert. Rodrigo Mora made it 3-2 to Roma in the 85th minute, set up by Daniele Ghilardi. Donyell Malen made it 4-2 to Roma in the 87th minute, set up by Rodrigo Mora.

It was 2-1 at half-time.

The lead changed hands once.

The referee, E. Feliciani, showed 1 yellow card: 0 to Roma and 1 to Cagliari.

Roma: G. Gasperini, 3-5-2 · Cagliari: F. Pisacane, 3-4-2-1.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

The prediction was right. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was AS Roma Win, and on 4-2 it was right.

The estimate's most likely result was a Roma win at 70%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 2-0 (12%).

The match had far more goals than expected: the estimate was about 3.1 goals and there were 6.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 59%; with 6 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 50%; both did, against the estimate.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-27, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 2.21 for Roma and 2.91 for Cagliari.

Roma scored about 1.8 more than their chances were worth: clinical finishing, or a goalkeeper having a bad day.

The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Roma to create more, and Cagliari did.

Roma had 8 shots on target, Cagliari 8.

Roma's goalkeeper made 6 saves.

Roma had 61% of the ball and turned it into the win.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Roma came into it with 11 Serie A matches played, scoring 2.8 and conceding 0.9 a match, with 2.32 expected goals for and 1.23 against, and had won 73% of their matches.

Cagliari came into it with 11 Serie A matches played, scoring 0.9 and conceding 1.4 a match, with 1.17 expected goals for and 1.82 against, and had won 45% of their matches.

Roma vs Cagliari: the match in numbers

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Emanuele Lulli (Roma), rated 8.5 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal, 1 assist.

Roma

• Emanuele Lulli 8.5 1 goal, 1 assist
• Rodrigo Mora 8.1 1 goal, 1 assist
• Pierluigi Gollini 7.7
• Matías Soulé 7.3
• Bryan Cristante 7.2

Cagliari

• Adam Obert 7.6 1 assist
• Daniel Maldini 7.1 1 goal
• Alieu Fadera 7.1
• M'Bala Nzola 6.9 1 goal
• Alessandro Deiola 6.9

The lowest-rated starter was Zé Pedro at 6.1. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

• Roma: Parma vs Roma Saturday 21 November 2026 · Serie A
• Cagliari: Como vs Cagliari Saturday 21 November 2026 · Serie A

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Roma vs Cagliari

What was the score in Roma vs Cagliari?

Roma 4-2 Cagliari (half-time 2-1), Serie A, Tuesday 27 October 2026.

Who scored in Roma vs Cagliari?

M'Bala Nzola 10', Emanuele Lulli 15', Niccolò Pisilli 21', Daniel Maldini 81', Rodrigo Mora 85', Donyell Malen 87'.

Did Moneyball predict Roma vs Cagliari correctly?

The prediction was right. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was AS Roma Win, and on 4-2 it was right.

Who was man of the match in Roma vs Cagliari?

Emanuele Lulli, rated 8.5 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Roma vs Cagliari?

E. Feliciani.