MoneyballDixon-Coles · xG fusion
Back to Moneyball

Salzburg 0-4 AC Milan: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

Full time: Salzburg 0-4 AC Milan

AC Milan beat Salzburg 4-0 in Europa League Matchday 2 on Thursday 15 October 2026 at Red Bull Arena. The goals: Alphadjo Cissè 15', Alphadjo Cissè 32', Alphadjo Cissè 49', Gonçalo Ramos 72'. It went against Moneyball's pre-match estimate.

How AC Milan won it

AC Milan struck first through Alphadjo Cissè in the 15th minute, set up by Omari Hutchinson. Alphadjo Cissè made it 0-2 to AC Milan in the 32nd minute, set up by Davide Bartesaghi. Alphadjo Cissè made it 0-3 to AC Milan in the 49th minute, set up by Adrien Rabiot. Gonçalo Ramos made it 0-4 to AC Milan in the 72nd minute, set up by Ardon Jashari.

It was 0-2 at half-time.

Alphadjo Cissè scored a hat-trick.

Filippo Terracciano of AC Milan was sent off in the 83rd minute. The referee, Horatiu Fesnic, showed 2 yellow cards: 1 to Salzburg and 1 to AC Milan.

Salzburg: D. Röhl, 4-2-3-1 · AC Milan: R. Amorim, 3-4-2-1.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

The prediction missed. Before kick-off Moneyball leaned to a Salzburg win at 50% and gave an AC Milan win 23%; the match went the other way. At 23%, it was a result the numbers saw about one time in 4.

The match had far more goals than expected: the estimate was about 2.6 goals and there were 4.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 48%; with 4 goals the over came in, against the way the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 51%; they did not both score, against the estimate.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-09, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

Salzburg had 2 shots on target, AC Milan 10.

Salzburg's goalkeeper made 5 saves.

Salzburg had 52% of the ball, but AC Milan took the points.

A red card changed the shape of the match, and no pre-match model can see one coming.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Salzburg came into it with 4 Europa League matches played, scoring 0.8 and conceding 2.0 a match, with 1.71 expected goals for and – against, and had won 25% of their matches.

AC Milan came into it with 4 Europa League matches played, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.8 a match, with 1.43 expected goals for and – against, and had won 25% of their matches.

Salzburg vs AC Milan: the match in numbers

SalzburgMatch statisticsAC Milan
52%Ball possession48%
14Total shots15
2Shots on target10
2Big chances7
525Total passes478
88%Pass accuracy90%
3Corners2
13Fouls12
1Offsides2
17Tackles25
5Saves2
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards1

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Alphadjo Cissè (AC Milan), rated 9.2 by Sportmonks, with 3 goals.

Salzburg

AC Milan

The lowest-rated starter was Leandro-Noel Morgalla at 5.9. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Salzburg vs AC Milan

What was the score in Salzburg vs AC Milan?

Salzburg 0-4 AC Milan (half-time 0-2), Europa League, Thursday 15 October 2026.

Who scored in Salzburg vs AC Milan?

Alphadjo Cissè 15', Alphadjo Cissè 32', Alphadjo Cissè 49', Gonçalo Ramos 72'.

Did Moneyball predict Salzburg vs AC Milan correctly?

The prediction missed. Before kick-off Moneyball leaned to a Salzburg win at 50% and gave an AC Milan win 23%; the match went the other way. At 23%, it was a result the numbers saw about one time in 4.

Who was man of the match in Salzburg vs AC Milan?

Alphadjo Cissè, rated 9.2 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Salzburg vs AC Milan?

Horatiu Fesnic.

Every match, before and after

Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.

Open Moneyball Match Live All match reports

Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.